Statistics, trade data, EU law and Chinese policy terms. Pages explain each one where it first appears: hover the dotted underline.
Statistics and method
z-scorez-scores, z score
How far a sector sits above (+) or below (−) the average of all sectors, in standard deviations. It puts indicators measured in different units on one scale.
Spearman ρSpearman, ρ, rho
Rank correlation, from −1 to +1: do the sectors that rank high on one measure also rank high on the other? 0 means no relation.
p-valuepermutation p, p =
How often a result at least this strong would appear by chance if there were no real association, found by reshuffling the data thousands of times. Below 0.05 is conventionally taken as evidence; above it, the test cannot tell the result from chance.
rank rangerank ranges, rank band
The 10th to 90th percentile of a sector's rank when the indicator weights are drawn at random 500 times. A narrow range means the rank does not depend on how you weight the indicators.
composite
The weighted average of a sector's z-scores across the indicators it has. A summary for comparison, not an index of harm.
policy momentummomentum
The sector's share of all documents held in the last 24 months, divided by its share in the 24 months before. Above 1× means policy attention is rising faster than the corpus as a whole.
provincial spread
How many provinces issued documents on the sector in the last 36 months.
location quotientlocation quotients, specialisation
A province's share of its documents in a sector, divided by the national share. 2× means the province leans to the sector twice as much as China overall.
back-castback-casts
The score recomputed using only the documents dated up to each past year-end, to show how policy pressure built up over time.
pre-specified testpre-specified, pre-analysis plan
A test whose data, measure and method were written down before it was first run, so the result cannot have been chosen after seeing the data.
exploratory
A check chosen after the data were seen. It is a lead worth testing properly, not a confirmed result.
null resultnull, no detectable association
The test found no association it could tell apart from chance. With few sectors only a strong association could show, so a null is not proof of no effect.
difference-in-differencesdifference in means
Compares the change in a targeted group with the change in a similar untargeted group, so that trends common to both cancel out.
precisionchecked precision, screen precision, hand-checked precision, Precision from
Of a random sample of screen hits, the share a reader confirmed as correct. 9/10 means one in ten hits is a false positive.
screenmeasure screen, the screen, screened
Automatic reading of every document for a kind of clause (a grant, a tax break, a local-only condition) by keyword rules and a language model. Hits are leads with a measured precision, not findings.
corpus
All the Chinese policy documents Waitan Ludi holds. Documents held are not all documents issued: coverage differs by province (see the coverage register).
compound growthcompound export growth, growth/yr
Average growth per year over the period, compounding: +20% a year doubles in about four years.
Trade data
HS codeHS codes, HS4, HS6, HS 2022, HS headings, HS heading
Harmonized System: the world customs classification of goods. Four digits make a heading (8507 = electric batteries), six a subheading. Headings are wider than the policies that target them.
CN8
The EU's eight-digit Combined Nomenclature, a finer split of the HS codes.
UN ComtradeComtrade
The UN database of customs trade statistics. Here: China's own reported exports and imports, in US dollars.
Eurostat ComextComext, Eurostat
Eurostat's database of EU trade, reported by EU customs, in euro and tonnes. The EU-side check on China's figures.
extra-EU importsextra-EU, from outside the EU
Imports into the EU-27 from all countries outside the EU. Trade between EU members is left out.
China's share of EU importsEU dependence, China share of EU imports
China's share of the EU's extra-EU imports of a sector's goods, by value. Above 50%, China is the majority supplier.
EU share
The share of China's exports of the sector's goods that go to the EU-27.
export/import ratioexport / import, export/import
China's exports of the goods divided by its imports of them. Above 1×, China sells more of them abroad than it buys.
unit valueunit values, unit-value gap, unit-value
Value per tonne: a rough price signal. It mixes qualities, so the level says little; a gap that widens while China's volume grows is what the page flags.
price pressure
Flagged when the gap between the unit value of imports from China and other suppliers widens while China's tonnes grow faster than the rest. A pointer, not a measure of undercutting.
EU law and trade defence
countervailing dutycountervailing, anti-subsidy, countervailable
An EU duty that offsets a foreign subsidy found to harm EU producers (Regulation (EU) 2016/1037). The investigation sorts the subsidy programmes under headings such as grants, preferential loans and tax relief.
anti-dumping
An EU duty on goods sold in the EU below their normal value. Not held in this corpus: only anti-subsidy acts are.
FSRForeign Subsidies Regulation, foreign-subsidy
EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation (EU) 2022/2560. Large EU mergers and public tenders must declare financial contributions from non-EU governments over the previous three years.
NZIANet-Zero Industry Act
EU Net-Zero Industry Act (EU) 2024/1735: a benchmark of 40% of the EU's needs for net-zero technologies (solar, batteries, electrolysers…) made in the EU by 2030.
CRMACritical Raw Materials Act
EU Critical Raw Materials Act (EU) 2024/1252: no more than 65% of the EU's use of any strategic raw material from a single non-EU country by 2030.
Chips Act
European Chips Act (EU) 2023/1781: aims at 20% of world chip production in the EU by 2030.
BEVbattery-electric
Battery-electric vehicle. The EU set definitive countervailing duties on Chinese BEVs in October 2024 (Regulation (EU) 2024/2754); plug-in hybrids are not covered.
plug-in hybridplug-in hybrids, PHEV
A car with both a battery that charges from the grid and a combustion engine. Not covered by the EU's BEV duties.
less than adequate remunerationbelow adequate remuneration, LTAR
Goods or services (land, electricity, inputs) supplied by the state at less than a market price: one of the subsidy headings in an anti-subsidy case.
specificityspecific subsidy
A subsidy limited to certain firms, industries or regions. Only specific subsidies can be countervailed; a programme titled for one industry, or listing named recipients, is a sign of it.
WTO notificationWTO notifications, WTO subsidy notifications, WTO-matched, G/SCM/N
WTO members must report their subsidy programmes under the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (SCM). "Matched" means a held document is cited in one of China's notifications; "not matched" does not mean not notified.
unreliable entity listunreliable-entity
China's list (MOFCOM, 2020) of foreign firms said to harm Chinese interests; listed firms can be barred from trade and investment in China.
export controlexport-control, export controls, control list
China's Export Control Law (2020) and its control list: licences for dual-use goods, critical minerals and technologies, and named foreign end users.
countermeasurecountermeasures, Anti-Foreign Sanctions
Chinese measures against foreign firms or officials under the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law (2021), usually in answer to a foreign sanction.
Chinese policy
文号发文字号, document number
A Chinese official document's number, such as 国办发〔2024〕7号: issuer code, year and serial number. Documents cite each other by it, which is how the citation graph is built.
State Council
China's cabinet, headed by the Premier. Its directives (国发, 国办发) are the top of the chain that provinces implement.
Five-Year PlanFive-Year Plans, 15th plan, 14th plan, 十五五, 十四五
China's medium-term plans: the 14th covers 2021–25, the 15th 2026–30. Every province and most cities issue their own outline under the national one.
plan outlineoutline, outlines, 规划纲要
A province's or city's master plan document for a Five-Year Plan (国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要). It names the industries the place means to build up.
restatementrestate, restates, restated, restatements, restating
A local document that cites a central document in order to implement it, often adding local money and conditions. Not seeing one means "not observed", never non-compliance.
directivedirectives
Here: a central document telling lower governments what to do. As a measure, "directive" means the text tells others to provide support rather than providing it itself ("operative").
operative
A measure the issuing government itself provides (it sets the amount, the terms or the recipients), as against a directive to lower levels.
central → local transmissiontransmission, promulgation
How a central policy travels down: the provincial, city and county documents that cite it, and how long they took.
favouring provisionfavouring provisions, favouring clause, favouring clauses, favouring
A clause that tilts a programme towards some firms: local firms, local products, domestic suppliers, or away from foreign firms or imports.
local preferencelocal-only, open only to local firms
Conditions that restrict support or purchasing to firms registered, paying tax or producing in the locality.
local registration
A condition that an applicant be registered (and usually pay tax) in the city or province to qualify. Hand-checked precision 56/60.
import substitutionimport-substitution, substitution
Language aiming to replace imported goods or technology with domestic ones (国产替代, 进口替代).
guidance fundguidance funds, 引导基金
A government-backed investment fund (政府引导基金) that takes equity stakes in firms, usually alongside private capital.
first-of-a-kind首台套, 首台（套）
Awards and insurance for the first units of new domestic equipment, materials or software (首台套, 首批次, 首版次), to help them win their first buyers.
interest subsidyinterest subsidies, 贴息
The state pays part of the interest on a firm's loan (贴息).
trade-in subsidytrade-in, 以旧换新
Payments to consumers who scrap an old car or appliance and buy a new one (以旧换新).
low-altitude economylow-altitude, 低空经济
Drones, air taxis (eVTOL) and the services and airspace management around them (低空经济), a priority since 2024.
embodied AI具身智能
AI in a physical body: humanoid and other robots that perceive and act (具身智能).
AI+人工智能+
The "AI+" initiative (人工智能+, State Council, August 2025): applying AI across industries and public services.
future industriesfuture industry, 未来产业
Technologies China backs before they have a market: quantum, biomanufacturing, hydrogen and fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied AI, 6G (未来产业).
topic treetopic trees
A central document and the documents that build on it, grouped as one policy area on this site.
NEVNEVs, new-energy vehicles
New-energy vehicles (新能源汽车): battery-electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel-cell cars.
MOFCOM
China's Ministry of Commerce: export controls, the unreliable entity list and trade remedies.
HKEX
Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Listed groups report government grants in their annual reports; those figures are read from the reports themselves.
Using the site
Atom feedAtom feeds
A subscription link: paste it into a feed reader or Outlook and new items arrive as they are added.
.icscalendar file
A calendar file: open it in Outlook, Google or Apple Calendar to add the dates.
MCP
Model Context Protocol: lets Claude or another AI assistant call this site's checks directly and answer from them, with sources.
APIJSON
The same figures as the page, in machine-readable form (JSON), for your own tools or models.
lensview as
Who you are reading as. A view changes what pages show first and which tasks they offer, never the figures.