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What the corpus is made of, how complete each field is, and how the citation graph behaves: the denominators behind every other page. 50,270 policy documents. Hover a column heading for its definition; each table downloads as CSV.
Whole graph for your own analysis:
nodes.csv ·
edges.csv
— load with pandas.read_csv; drop non-canonical nodes to count instruments, not copies.
The English used for Chinese policy terms: glossary.
Documents held since 1 October 2026, by the day each was added: 208 then, 50,256 now. Provinces with 100 or more local documents: 0 then, 31 of 31 now. Growth here is collection, not policy output.
Documents held, by level
Provinces with 100+ local documents (of 31)
How the counts on other pages relate to each other.
| Count | n | Definition |
|---|---|---|
| Articles stored | 54,567 | every page we hold, including copies and English-language items |
| Chinese-language articles | 54,532 | |
| Later copies of a numbered document | 4,009 | same 文号 held again (mirror or repost); one copy stands for the instrument |
| Instruments (one row per document) | 50,523 | Chinese-language, copies folded in |
| …of which news and briefings | 253 | doc_category matches 动态/新闻/要闻 |
| …of which policy documents and interpretations | 50,270 | what the Documents page lists by default |
Level of the issuing body's government (central, province, prefecture, county). Unplaced: the issuer is not yet linked to a division.
| Level | Documents | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| National | 3,734 | 7.4% | ███ |
| Provincial | 29,218 | 58.1% | ████████████████████████ |
| Prefectural | 15,607 | 31.0% | █████████████ |
| County | 1,697 | 3.4% | █ |
| Unplaced issuer | 14 | 0.0% |
Year of the document's own date (成文日期 where found, else the portal's posting date). Collection is uneven: recent years and the crawled provinces are over-represented, so counts are not a measure of policy output.
| Year | Central | Local | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 1 | 20 | 21 | |
| 2001 | 5 | 30 | 35 | |
| 2002 | 2 | 68 | 70 | |
| 2003 | 3 | 220 | 223 | █ |
| 2004 | 10 | 232 | 242 | █ |
| 2005 | 4 | 236 | 240 | █ |
| 2006 | 9 | 238 | 247 | █ |
| 2007 | 3 | 555 | 558 | █ |
| 2008 | 5 | 386 | 391 | █ |
| 2009 | 8 | 381 | 389 | █ |
| 2010 | 8 | 649 | 657 | ██ |
| 2011 | 8 | 743 | 751 | ██ |
| 2012 | 8 | 699 | 707 | ██ |
| 2013 | 106 | 689 | 795 | ██ |
| 2014 | 120 | 915 | 1,035 | ███ |
| 2015 | 171 | 1,047 | 1,218 | ███ |
| 2016 | 187 | 1,573 | 1,760 | ████ |
| 2017 | 148 | 1,768 | 1,916 | █████ |
| 2018 | 316 | 1,565 | 1,881 | █████ |
| 2019 | 261 | 1,205 | 1,466 | ████ |
| 2020 | 276 | 1,873 | 2,149 | █████ |
| 2021 | 280 | 2,841 | 3,121 | ████████ |
| 2022 | 249 | 3,055 | 3,304 | ████████ |
| 2023 | 242 | 3,484 | 3,726 | █████████ |
| 2024 | 367 | 4,474 | 4,841 | ████████████ |
| 2025 | 539 | 8,433 | 8,972 | ███████████████████████ |
| 2026 | 353 | 9,090 | 9,443 | ████████████████████████ |
112 documents dated before 2000 are not shown.
Documents issued by a province or by a government inside it. Provinces whose portals were enumerated in full have far more documents than those reached only through citations or archives: compare provinces with care.
| Province | Provincial | Prefectural | County | Total | No text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 福建省 | 1,678 | 2,311 | 0 | 3,989 | 1.3% | ████████████████████████ |
| 浙江省 | 961 | 2,590 | 4 | 3,555 | 0.0% | █████████████████████ |
| 辽宁省 | 2,482 | 980 | 15 | 3,477 | 0.0% | █████████████████████ |
| 安徽省 | 3,451 | 1 | 0 | 3,452 | 8.8% | █████████████████████ |
| 四川省 | 1,982 | 1,332 | 9 | 3,323 | 0.0% | ████████████████████ |
| 上海市 | 2,338 | 0 | 897 | 3,235 | 0.0% | ███████████████████ |
| 江苏省 | 2,187 | 6 | 1 | 2,194 | 0.0% | █████████████ |
| 湖北省 | 734 | 1,189 | 16 | 1,939 | 0.0% | ████████████ |
| 陕西省 | 987 | 906 | 5 | 1,898 | 0.0% | ███████████ |
| 内蒙古自治区 | 710 | 1,093 | 35 | 1,838 | 0.0% | ███████████ |
| 新疆维吾尔自治区 | 1,596 | 23 | 0 | 1,619 | 0.0% | ██████████ |
| 重庆市 | 1,612 | 0 | 2 | 1,614 | 0.0% | ██████████ |
| 吉林省 | 1,160 | 350 | 59 | 1,569 | 0.0% | █████████ |
| 西藏自治区 | 1,364 | 95 | 0 | 1,459 | 0.0% | █████████ |
| 贵州省 | 783 | 622 | 3 | 1,408 | 0.0% | ████████ |
| 河南省 | 30 | 1,308 | 57 | 1,395 | 0.0% | ████████ |
| 广东省 | 1,114 | 118 | 85 | 1,317 | 2.4% | ████████ |
| 云南省 | 703 | 547 | 3 | 1,253 | 0.0% | ████████ |
| 山东省 | 491 | 660 | 3 | 1,154 | 0.0% | ███████ |
| 江西省 | 39 | 508 | 469 | 1,016 | 0.0% | ██████ |
| 北京市 | 616 | 0 | 26 | 642 | 0.2% | ████ |
| 宁夏回族自治区 | 495 | 1 | 0 | 496 | 0.0% | ███ |
| 海南省 | 262 | 224 | 0 | 486 | 0.0% | ███ |
| 甘肃省 | 62 | 374 | 3 | 439 | 0.0% | ███ |
| 广西壮族自治区 | 135 | 232 | 2 | 369 | 0.0% | ██ |
| 山西省 | 285 | 41 | 0 | 326 | 0.0% | ██ |
| 青海省 | 301 | 0 | 0 | 301 | 0.0% | ██ |
| 湖南省 | 212 | 57 | 0 | 269 | 5.2% | ██ |
| 河北省 | 212 | 39 | 0 | 251 | 0.0% | ██ |
| 黑龙江省 | 122 | 0 | 1 | 123 | 0.0% | █ |
| 天津市 | 114 | 0 | 2 | 116 | 0.0% | █ |
direct crawl: fetched from the government site; commoncrawl / wayback: read from a web archive copy of the government page, without contacting the site.
| Route | Documents | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| commoncrawl | 28,883 | 57.5% | ████████████████████████ |
| direct crawl | 14,278 | 28.4% | ████████████ |
| portal | 6,915 | 13.8% | ██████ |
| topic-search | 133 | 0.3% | |
| commoncrawl-attachment | 54 | 0.1% | |
| search+commoncrawl | 7 | 0.0% |
Share of the 50,270 policy documents with each field filled.
| Field | Filled | Share | Definition | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Document number (文号) | 24,846 | 49.4% | Parsed own number; many notices carry none | ████████████ |
| Document's own date found | 33,948 | 67.5% | Sign-off, regulation heading or a trustworthy 成文日期 label | ████████████████ |
| Dated by the portal posting date | 16,322 | 32.5% | No own date found; posting date used instead | ████████ |
| Own date differs from posting date | 23,959 | 47.7% | Of all documents; median gap shown below | ███████████ |
| Body text missing | 406 | 0.8% | Under 60 characters of text and no attachment text: the page held no body we could read. Such a document cannot cite anything | |
| In-force date stated | 13,055 | 26.0% | Effective-from date extracted from the text | ██████ |
| Issuer placed in a division | 50,256 | 100.0% | Needed for level and map | ████████████████████████ |
| Attachment text held | 949 | 1.9% | Text of attached PDF/Word/Excel files | |
| English translation | 13,312 | 26.5% | Machine translation of the title | ██████ |
| English issuer name | 38,709 | 77.0% | By rule: the place romanised plus the official English for the body (issuer_en.py); no translation service | ██████████████████ |
| At least one measure found | 9,596 | 19.1% | A policy instrument (grant, tax relief, loan…) found in the text | █████ |
| A measure tagged with a sector | 774 | 1.5% | CPC group named in the measure's own sentence or the title (CSV adds indicative HS headings) | |
| Repealed by a later document | 276 | 0.5% | A later document held says it is repealed in whole or part (废止, 失效) | |
| Metadata extracted (LLM) | 0 | 0.0% | Effective dates and entities read by the LLM pass | |
| Asymmetry screened | 50,270 | 100.0% | Unequal-treatment screen has run | ████████████████████████ |
| Linked to a Five-Year Plan | 4,960 | 9.9% | ██ | |
| Policy tags | 3,960 | 7.9% | Agenda tags (import substitution, self-reliance…) | ██ |
Text length (characters): p10 313 · median 2,126 · p90 7,597 · p99 28,173. Posting lag where the own date differs: median 9 days, IQR 4–25, p90 173. 26,311 documents carry the same own and posting date.
A citation is resolved when the cited document is held. Unresolved citations are kept: ranked by how often they are cited they form the crawl frontier.
| Method | Citations | Resolved | Resolution rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Document number (发文字号) | 87,616 | 15,567 | 17.8% |
| Title match (《…》) | 57,272 | 13,079 | 22.8% |
| Publisher link (相关文件) | 1,128 | 74 | 6.6% |
| Continues an earlier policy (延续, by title) | 28 | 28 | 100.0% |
| All methods | 146,044 | 28,748 | 19.7% |
Over the 50,270 policy documents and the 24,630 resolved document pairs. Heavy tails are expected: a few State Council directives are cited hundreds of times.
| Measure | Mean | Median | p90 | p99 | Max | Zero | Gini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In-degree (cited by) | 0.49 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 446 | 86.6% | 0.95 |
| Out-degree (cites) | 0.49 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 392 | 71.2% | 0.81 |
Resolved citations by the level of the citing and the cited document, with the time between them (citing date minus cited date). Negative lags are references to a document dated later, usually a draft or a dating error.
| Citing → cited | Citations | Share | Median lag (years) | IQR (years) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Provincial → Central | 7,487 | 30.4% | 0.9 | 0.4 to 2.7 | ████████████████████████ |
| Provincial → Provincial | 5,808 | 23.6% | 1.9 | 0.4 to 5.2 | ███████████████████ |
| Prefectural → Central | 2,878 | 11.7% | 2.2 | 0.8 to 5.6 | █████████ |
| Prefectural → Prefectural | 2,382 | 9.7% | 2.1 | 0.8 to 4.6 | ████████ |
| Central → Central | 2,021 | 8.2% | 1.8 | 0.7 to 4.5 | ██████ |
| Prefectural → Provincial | 1,956 | 7.9% | 1.4 | 0.4 to 3.8 | ██████ |
| Provincial → Prefectural | 803 | 3.3% | 2.5 | 0.7 to 5.9 | ███ |
| County → Provincial | 314 | 1.3% | 0.8 | 0.2 to 2.8 | █ |
| County → Central | 285 | 1.2% | 2.3 | 0.7 to 5.4 | █ |
| Central → Provincial | 194 | 0.8% | 2.0 | 0.4 to 9.2 | █ |
| Provincial → County | 123 | 0.5% | 10.5 | 2.1 to 11.9 | |
| County → County | 116 | 0.5% | 0.8 | 0.1 to 2.3 | |
| Central → Prefectural | 98 | 0.4% | 1.9 | 0.5 to 4.6 | |
| County → Prefectural | 74 | 0.3% | 3.1 | 1.2 to 6.6 | |
| Prefectural → County | 57 | 0.2% | 1.6 | -3.8 to 9.3 | |
| Central → County | 1 | 0.0% | 1.8 | 1.8 to 1.8 |
Distinct held documents citing each one.
| Document | Cited by | id | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 中华人民共和国政府信息公开条例 | 446 | 30598 | ████████████████████████ |
| 财政违法行为处罚处分条例 | 366 | 4657 | ████████████████████ |
| 中华人民共和国政府信息公开条例 | 238 | 14436 | █████████████ |
| 中华人民共和国道路交通安全法 | 211 | 16863 | ███████████ |
| 国务院对确需保留的行政审批项目设定行政许可的决定 | 193 | 3075 | ██████████ |
| 中华人民共和国统计法实施条例 | 125 | 25098 | ███████ |
| 医疗器械监督管理条例 | 110 | 11429 | ██████ |
| 重大行政决策程序暂行条例 | 110 | 22456 | ██████ |
| 国务院办公厅关于印发《政府信息公开信息处理费管理办法》的通知 | 108 | 30557 | ██████ |
| 关于印发中小企业划型标准规定的通知 | 105 | 13719 | ██████ |
| 中国共产党纪律处分条例 | 102 | 42090 | █████ |
| 事业单位人事管理条例 | 101 | 40465 | █████ |
| 中华人民共和国政府采购法实施条例 | 96 | 11438 | █████ |
| 企业信息公示暂行条例 | 91 | 44176 | █████ |
| 医疗机构管理条例 | 87 | 39181 | █████ |
75,166 distinct documents are cited but not held. A title-only reference may name a document we hold under a different title.
| Cited as | Times cited | |
|---|---|---|
| 人社部发〔2016〕140号 | 113 | ████████████████████████ |
| 《事业单位公开招聘人员暂行规定》 | 100 | █████████████████████ |
| 《事业单位公开招聘违纪违规行为处理规定》 | 96 | ████████████████████ |
| 《事业单位人事管理回避规定》 | 83 | ██████████████████ |
| 国务院令第679号 | 79 | █████████████████ |
| 《建筑业企业资质管理规定》 | 78 | █████████████████ |
| 《关于进一步规范入学和就业体检项目维护乙肝表面抗原携带者入学和就业权利的通知》 | 77 | ████████████████ |
| 厅字〔2014〕26号 | 71 | ███████████████ |
| 《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要》 | 70 | ███████████████ |
| 皖交路〔2019〕144号 | 70 | ███████████████ |
| 人社部令第35号 | 67 | ██████████████ |
| 新人社发〔2013〕141号 | 66 | ██████████████ |
| 国务院令第713号 | 65 | ██████████████ |
| 《医疗机构管理条例实施细则》 | 65 | ██████████████ |
| 《放射性同位素与射线装置安全许可管理办法》 | 62 | █████████████ |
Provisions that treat firms differently by ownership, origin or location. "Bans" are provisions that prohibit such discrimination.
| Mechanism | Imposes | Bans | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 0 | 1,687 | |
| Ownership / IP | 736 | 58 | ████████████████████████ |
| SOE / private | 588 | 55 | ███████████████████ |
| Local registration | 405 | 38 | █████████████ |
| Local production | 85 | 15 | ███ |
| Local content | 49 | 24 | ██ |
| Catalogue | 31 | 6 | █ |
| Procurement | 9 | 0 |
Confidence scores are not informative yet: 100.0% of provisions carry the screen's default of 0.40.
Each measure is one instrument found in a document, with how binding it is.
| Instrument | Operative: the measure itself | Directive: tells lower levels to act | Withdrawal: ends or phases out the measure | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital grant | 6,287 | 487 | 39 | 6,813 | ████████████████████████ |
| Tax relief | 2,096 | 241 | 49 | 2,386 | ████████ |
| Interest subsidy | 1,060 | 135 | 12 | 1,207 | ████ |
| Credit guarantee | 606 | 99 | 12 | 717 | ███ |
| Guidance fund / state equity | 473 | 86 | 4 | 563 | ██ |
| Purchase subsidy | 420 | 74 | 3 | 497 | ██ |
| Trade-in / scrappage subsidy | 430 | 57 | 5 | 492 | ██ |
| Foreign investment rule | 328 | 40 | 47 | 415 | █ |
| Usage privilege | 276 | 30 | 0 | 306 | █ |
| Policy lending | 233 | 67 | 1 | 301 | █ |
| Local registration condition | 252 | 15 | 0 | 267 | █ |
| Operating subsidy | 215 | 41 | 1 | 257 | █ |
| Land and sites | 190 | 18 | 0 | 208 | █ |
| Import duty relief on inputs | 100 | 61 | 1 | 162 | █ |
| Vouchers for firms | 138 | 17 | 0 | 155 | █ |
| First-of-a-kind support | 88 | 21 | 0 | 109 | |
| Procurement quota | 49 | 15 | 0 | 64 | |
| Local content condition | 33 | 11 | 0 | 44 | |
| Local production condition | 35 | 8 | 0 | 43 | |
| Procurement preference | 36 | 3 | 0 | 39 | |
| Feed-in tariff / power price subsidy | 33 | 5 | 0 | 38 | |
| Import tariff | 21 | 8 | 0 | 29 | |
| Electricity price concession | 24 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
Why a measure says it exists, each backed by a quote.
| Rationale | Measures | |
|---|---|---|
| Innovation & R&D | 782 | ████████████████████████ |
| Support for SMEs & private firms | 702 | ██████████████████████ |
| Employment & incomes | 546 | █████████████████ |
| Industrial upgrading & strategic competitiveness | 518 | ████████████████ |
| Growth & domestic demand | 454 | ██████████████ |
| Opening up & foreign investment | 320 | ██████████ |
| Environment & climate | 319 | ██████████ |
| Regional development | 251 | ████████ |
| Exports & foreign trade | 195 | ██████ |
| Public health & product safety | 169 | █████ |
| Sanitary, phytosanitary & biosafety | 144 | ████ |
| Attracting investment to the locality | 98 | ███ |
| Food security | 95 | ███ |
| Fair competition & market order | 56 | ██ |
| Supply-chain security & resilience | 41 | █ |
| Technological self-reliance | 32 | █ |
| National security & defence | 30 | █ |
| Intellectual-property protection | 22 | █ |
| Energy security | 10 | |
| Critical resources & minerals | 8 | |
| Financial & fiscal stability | 8 | |
| Data & cyber security | 6 |
Depth = citation hops from a root document (0 = the root); a document reached from several roots counts once, at its shallowest depth.
| Topic | Documents | Local | Depth 0 | Depth 1 | Depth 2 | Depth 3+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equipment renewal and trade-in | 247 | 205 | 1 | 85 | 133 | 28 | ████████████████████████ |
| New energy vehicles | 216 | 103 | 4 | 119 | 50 | 43 | █████████████████████ |
| Unified national market and fair competition | 184 | 154 | 2 | 102 | 62 | 18 | ██████████████████ |
| Medical devices and equipment | 167 | 128 | 4 | 136 | 26 | 1 | ████████████████ |
| Government procurement and domestic products | 157 | 137 | 3 | 105 | 47 | 2 | ███████████████ |
| Overcapacity and anti-involution | 121 | 103 | 1 | 40 | 46 | 34 | ████████████ |
| Charging infrastructure | 103 | 88 | 2 | 55 | 28 | 18 | ██████████ |
| AI and computing power | 102 | 67 | 2 | 80 | 18 | 2 | ██████████ |
| Pharmaceuticals and biopharma | 80 | 54 | 7 | 62 | 11 | 0 | ████████ |
| Foreign investment | 62 | 55 | 3 | 48 | 9 | 2 | ██████ |
| Low-altitude economy | 62 | 57 | 2 | 59 | 1 | 0 | ██████ |
| Hydrogen and fuel cells | 57 | 52 | 3 | 36 | 15 | 3 | ██████ |
| Drones and UAV technology | 54 | 48 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 0 | █████ |
| Semiconductors and software | 48 | 28 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 18 | █████ |
| Specialised SMEs (专精特新) | 48 | 37 | 2 | 33 | 10 | 3 | █████ |
| Critical minerals and export control | 40 | 4 | 3 | 33 | 4 | 0 | ████ |
| Data as a factor of production | 34 | 26 | 4 | 22 | 8 | 0 | ███ |
| Solar PV | 31 | 18 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 2 | ███ |
| New-type energy storage | 23 | 17 | 3 | 16 | 4 | 0 | ██ |
| Industrial machine tools (工业母机) | 20 | 10 | 2 | 15 | 3 | 0 | ██ |
| Robotics and embodied AI | 13 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | █ |
| Seed industry | 12 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 1 | █ |
| Future industries | 10 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | █ |
| Consumption and services demand | 8 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | █ |
| New materials | 8 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | █ |
| First-of-kind major equipment (首台套) | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | █ |
| Shipbuilding and marine equipment | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Biomanufacturing and the bioeconomy | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Civil aircraft and aero-engines | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ten randomly drawn screened measures per instrument, read against the quote and the document (reports/measure_validation_2026-10-25.csv). Checked by the AI assistant, not by an independent human coder; ten per class is indicative only.
| Instrument | Sample | Right instrument | …and support to firms | Precision | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First-of-a-kind support | 10 | 10 | 10 | 100% | 72% to 100% |
| Interest subsidy | 10 | 9 | 9 | 90% | 60% to 98% |
| Credit guarantee | 10 | 9 | 9 | 90% | 60% to 98% |
| Tax relief | 10 | 8 | 7 | 80% | 49% to 94% |
| Purchase subsidy | 10 | 8 | 8 | 80% | 49% to 94% |
| Capital grant | 10 | 7 | 4 | 70% | 40% to 89% |
| Local registration condition | 10 | 6 | 6 | 60% | 31% to 83% |
| Guidance fund / state equity | 10 | 5 | 5 | 50% | 24% to 76% |
| Trade-in / scrappage subsidy | 10 | 5 | 5 | 50% | 24% to 76% |
| Procurement preference | 10 | 4 | 4 | 40% | 17% to 69% |
| Local content condition | 10 | 9 | 3 | 30% | 11% to 60% |
| Local production condition | 10 | 2 | 2 | 20% | 6% to 51% |
| Unequal treatment: local production | 15 | 15 | 15 | 100% | 80% to 100% |
| Unequal treatment: local registration or tax | 10 | 8 | 8 | 80% | 49% to 94% |
| Unequal treatment: own brand / own IP | 15 | 12 | 12 | 80% | 55% to 93% |
| Unequal treatment: local content (binding only) | 15 | 10 | 10 | 67% | 42% to 85% |
| Unequal treatment: ownership type (mostly private-firm support) | 10 | 6 | 6 | 60% | 31% to 83% |
Instrument rows were checked before the 25 October fix of the unequal-treatment screen, which removed most false local-production, local-content and own-brand hits (the unequal-treatment rows show the re-check after it). Procurement preference still matches 本地区 outside any condition.
Random samples coded by hand against the source text. Precision only: how often a hit is right, not how many true cases are missed.
| Screen | Sample | Right | Precision | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Provincial response to a directive | 40 | 40 | 100.0% | 91.2% to 100.0% |
| Sector assignment | 40 | 39 | 97.5% | 87.1% to 99.6% |
| Stated rationale | 40 | 38 | 95.0% | 83.5% to 98.6% |
| Local-registration condition in an eligibility clause | 60 | 56 | 93.3% | 84.1% to 97.4% |
Time from a State Council directive to a provincial document citing it as its basis, stratified by province, standard errors clustered by directive.
| Model | Pairs | Events | Directives | Concordance | Min PH p | HR 2022–26 vs 2013–15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All panel provinces | 5,644 | 1,320 | 1,146 | 0.637 | 0.1328 | 0.43 (0.34 to 0.54) |
| Guangdong, Fujian, Anhui | 3,431 | 1,167 | 1,146 | 0.639 | 0.0548 | 0.39 (0.30 to 0.50) |
| Broad outcome (citation or title echo) | 5,644 | 1,539 | 1,146 | 0.621 | 0.0113 | 0.49 (0.39 to 0.61) |
Recall proxy: of 1,288 pairs a title echo finds, the citation measure also finds 1,069 (83.0%).
A provincial document held without its body text cannot cite a directive, so a province-period with many empty documents looks less responsive than it is. Readable = more than 60 characters of body text, over the cohort's years and the year after. The headline is recomputed on province-years whose documents were at least 90% readable in the directive's year and the next.
| Cohort | All pairs | Answered ≤1 yr | Text-complete pairs | Answered ≤1 yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013–15 | 1,068 | 33.9% (31.1%–36.8%) | 1,068 | 33.9% (31.1%–36.8%) |
| 2016–18 | 2,375 | 24.2% (22.5%–25.9%) | 2,375 | 24.2% (22.5%–25.9%) |
| 2019–21 | 1,128 | 12.9% (11.1%–15.0%) | 688 | 13.1% (10.8%–15.8%) |
| 2022–26 | 900 | 9.0% (7.3%–11.1%) | 656 | 8.8% (6.9%–11.3%) |
| Province | Cohort | Pairs | Answered ≤1 yr | Readable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing | 2016–18 | 422 | 4.0% | 100.0% |
| Beijing | 2019–21 | 188 | 6.4% | 100.0% |
| Beijing | 2022–26 | 151 | 7.3% | 100.0% |
| Anhui | 2013–15 | 356 | 45.2% | 99.8% |
| Anhui | 2016–18 | 422 | 52.1% | 99.0% |
| Anhui | 2019–21 | 188 | 29.8% | 76.5% |
| Anhui | 2022–26 | 151 | 15.2% | 70.5% |
| Fujian | 2013–15 | 356 | 20.5% | 100.0% |
| Fujian | 2016–18 | 422 | 24.4% | 100.0% |
| Fujian | 2019–21 | 188 | 13.3% | 100.0% |
| Fujian | 2022–26 | 149 | 11.4% | 100.0% |
| Hunan | 2016–18 | 265 | 14.7% | 100.0% |
| Hunan | 2019–21 | 188 | 3.2% | 100.0% |
| Hunan | 2022–26 | 151 | 1.3% | 100.0% |
| Guangdong | 2013–15 | 356 | 36.0% | 100.0% |
| Guangdong | 2016–18 | 422 | 42.2% | 99.5% |
| Guangdong | 2019–21 | 188 | 25.0% | 98.6% |
| Guangdong | 2022–26 | 148 | 18.9% | 95.7% |
| Hainan | 2016–18 | 422 | 4.0% | 100.0% |
| Hainan | 2019–21 | 188 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Hainan | 2022–26 | 150 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
The headline that provinces answer far fewer State Council directives than they did, tested under a
pre-analysis plan written before the analysis (reports/pap_responsiveness.md; results and caveats in
reports/pap_responsiveness_results.md). RR = share of directives answered by a basis response within a
year, 2022–25 against 2013–15, in Fujian, Guangdong and Anhui, on the 150 coder-labelled directives. "Failed" means the 95% interval includes 1; "shrank" that the decline is smaller or less certain than
published; "held" that it is confidently at least a quarter. Run 2026-10-22; one coder's labels unverified.
| Estimate | RR | 95% interval | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1, the primary estimate (standardised to the 2022–25 mix, corrected for collection coverage) | 0.61 | 0.28–1.07 | failed |
| Sensitivity: 2013-15 mix (plan as written) | 0.58 | 0.28–1.01 | failed |
| Sensitivity: uncorrected | 0.54 | 0.24–0.99 | shrank |
| Sensitivity: uncorrected, province-years with coverage >= 0.8 only | 0.76 | 0.22–1.60 | failed |
| Sensitivity: XJ mandate labels | 0.57 | 0.26–1.01 | failed |
| S3: within two years, 2019–23 against 2013–15 | 0.80 | 0.56–1.09 | failed |
| S4: Cox hazard ratio (no coverage correction, clustered by directive) | 0.42 | 0.20–0.87 | |
| Published figure | 0.45 |
| Rival explanation | RR | 95% interval | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R2 collection coverage (P1 uncorrected) | 0.54 | 0.24–0.99 | |
| R3 directive mix: M2 directives only | 0.69 | 0.26–1.32 | accounts for part |
| R3 directive mix: unstandardised, uncorrected ratio | 0.46 | ||
| R8 extractor recall by cohort | 0.69 | 0.32–1.22 | accounts for part |
| R9 dating: own-dated responses only | 0.61 | 0.28–1.07 | does not account |
| R7 copying without citing: S1 with B1 (θ=0.013) | 0.81 | 0.51–1.19 | accounts for the decline |
| R7 copying without citing: S1 with B1 (θ=0.05) | 0.60 | 0.32–0.97 | does not account |
| R6 authority moved to the Party: S1 with B4 (θ=0.05) | 0.87 | 0.47–1.57 | accounts for the decline |
"Accounts" results for copying without citing (θ = 0.013) and Party-basis echoes rest on few documents: the low-overlap text matches behind the first are, by the coders' labels, not adoptions in recent years, and the second are mostly annual legislative plans. See the results note.