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外 Waitan Ludi Policy Terminal China industrial-policy monitor · updated 2026-10-25
Analyst view The denominators: corpus composition, completeness and robustness, with CSVs.

Data

What the corpus is made of, how complete each field is, and how the citation graph behaves: the denominators behind every other page. 50,270 policy documents. Hover a column heading for its definition; each table downloads as CSV.

Whole graph for your own analysis: nodes.csv · edges.csv — load with pandas.read_csv; drop non-canonical nodes to count instruments, not copies. The English used for Chinese policy terms: glossary.

Coverage over time

Documents held since 1 October 2026, by the day each was added: 208 then, 50,256 now. Provinces with 100 or more local documents: 0 then, 31 of 31 now. Growth here is collection, not policy output.

Documents held, by level

010,00020,00030,0001 Oct8 Oct15 Oct22 Oct29 Oct1 Nov8 Nov10 NovProvincial 29,218City & county 17,304Central 3,734

Provinces with 100+ local documents (of 31)

0102030401 Oct8 Oct15 Oct22 Oct29 Oct1 Nov8 Nov10 Nov

Corpus [csv]

How the counts on other pages relate to each other.

CountnDefinition
Articles stored54,567every page we hold, including copies and English-language items
Chinese-language articles54,532
Later copies of a numbered document4,009same 文号 held again (mirror or repost); one copy stands for the instrument
Instruments (one row per document)50,523Chinese-language, copies folded in
…of which news and briefings253doc_category matches 动态/新闻/要闻
…of which policy documents and interpretations50,270what the Documents page lists by default

Policy documents by administrative level [csv]

Level of the issuing body's government (central, province, prefecture, county). Unplaced: the issuer is not yet linked to a division.

LevelDocumentsShare
National3,7347.4%███
Provincial29,21858.1%████████████████████████
Prefectural15,60731.0%█████████████
County1,6973.4%█
Unplaced issuer140.0%

Policy documents by year [csv]

Year of the document's own date (成文日期 where found, else the portal's posting date). Collection is uneven: recent years and the crawled provinces are over-represented, so counts are not a measure of policy output.

YearCentralLocalTotal
200012021
200153035
200226870
20033220223█
200410232242█
20054236240█
20069238247█
20073555558█
20085386391█
20098381389█
20108649657██
20118743751██
20128699707██
2013106689795██
20141209151,035███
20151711,0471,218███
20161871,5731,760████
20171481,7681,916█████
20183161,5651,881█████
20192611,2051,466████
20202761,8732,149█████
20212802,8413,121████████
20222493,0553,304████████
20232423,4843,726█████████
20243674,4744,841████████████
20255398,4338,972███████████████████████
20263539,0909,443████████████████████████

112 documents dated before 2000 are not shown.

Local policy documents by province [csv]

Documents issued by a province or by a government inside it. Provinces whose portals were enumerated in full have far more documents than those reached only through citations or archives: compare provinces with care.

ProvinceProvincialPrefecturalCountyTotalNo text
福建省1,6782,31103,9891.3%████████████████████████
浙江省9612,59043,5550.0%█████████████████████
辽宁省2,482980153,4770.0%█████████████████████
安徽省3,451103,4528.8%█████████████████████
四川省1,9821,33293,3230.0%████████████████████
上海市2,33808973,2350.0%███████████████████
江苏省2,187612,1940.0%█████████████
湖北省7341,189161,9390.0%████████████
陕西省98790651,8980.0%███████████
内蒙古自治区7101,093351,8380.0%███████████
新疆维吾尔自治区1,5962301,6190.0%██████████
重庆市1,612021,6140.0%██████████
吉林省1,160350591,5690.0%█████████
西藏自治区1,3649501,4590.0%█████████
贵州省78362231,4080.0%████████
河南省301,308571,3950.0%████████
广东省1,114118851,3172.4%████████
云南省70354731,2530.0%████████
山东省49166031,1540.0%███████
江西省395084691,0160.0%██████
北京市6160266420.2%████
宁夏回族自治区495104960.0%███
海南省26222404860.0%███
甘肃省6237434390.0%███
广西壮族自治区13523223690.0%██
山西省2854103260.0%██
青海省301003010.0%██
湖南省2125702695.2%██
河北省2123902510.0%██
黑龙江省122011230.0%█
天津市114021160.0%█

How documents were retrieved [csv]

direct crawl: fetched from the government site; commoncrawl / wayback: read from a web archive copy of the government page, without contacting the site.

RouteDocumentsShare
commoncrawl28,88357.5%████████████████████████
direct crawl14,27828.4%████████████
portal6,91513.8%██████
topic-search1330.3%
commoncrawl-attachment540.1%
search+commoncrawl70.0%

Field completeness [csv]

Share of the 50,270 policy documents with each field filled.

FieldFilledShareDefinition
Document number (文号)24,84649.4%Parsed own number; many notices carry none████████████
Document's own date found33,94867.5%Sign-off, regulation heading or a trustworthy 成文日期 label████████████████
Dated by the portal posting date16,32232.5%No own date found; posting date used instead████████
Own date differs from posting date23,95947.7%Of all documents; median gap shown below███████████
Body text missing4060.8%Under 60 characters of text and no attachment text: the page held no body we could read. Such a document cannot cite anything
In-force date stated13,05526.0%Effective-from date extracted from the text██████
Issuer placed in a division50,256100.0%Needed for level and map████████████████████████
Attachment text held9491.9%Text of attached PDF/Word/Excel files
English translation13,31226.5%Machine translation of the title██████
English issuer name38,70977.0%By rule: the place romanised plus the official English for the body (issuer_en.py); no translation service██████████████████
At least one measure found9,59619.1%A policy instrument (grant, tax relief, loan…) found in the text█████
A measure tagged with a sector7741.5%CPC group named in the measure's own sentence or the title (CSV adds indicative HS headings)
Repealed by a later document2760.5%A later document held says it is repealed in whole or part (废止, 失效)
Metadata extracted (LLM)00.0%Effective dates and entities read by the LLM pass
Asymmetry screened50,270100.0%Unequal-treatment screen has run████████████████████████
Linked to a Five-Year Plan4,9609.9%██
Policy tags3,9607.9%Agenda tags (import substitution, self-reliance…)██

Text length (characters): p10 313 · median 2,126 · p90 7,597 · p99 28,173. Posting lag where the own date differs: median 9 days, IQR 4–25, p90 173. 26,311 documents carry the same own and posting date.

Citations found, by method [csv]

A citation is resolved when the cited document is held. Unresolved citations are kept: ranked by how often they are cited they form the crawl frontier.

MethodCitationsResolvedResolution rate
Document number (发文字号)87,61615,56717.8%
Title match (《…》)57,27213,07922.8%
Publisher link (相关文件)1,128746.6%
Continues an earlier policy (延续, by title)2828100.0%
All methods146,04428,74819.7%

Citation-graph degree distributions [csv]

Over the 50,270 policy documents and the 24,630 resolved document pairs. Heavy tails are expected: a few State Council directives are cited hundreds of times.

MeasureMeanMedianp90p99MaxZeroGini
In-degree (cited by)0.4901944686.6%0.95
Out-degree (cites)0.4901439271.2%0.81

Who cites whom [csv]

Resolved citations by the level of the citing and the cited document, with the time between them (citing date minus cited date). Negative lags are references to a document dated later, usually a draft or a dating error.

Citing → citedCitationsShareMedian lag (years)IQR (years)
Provincial → Central7,48730.4%0.90.4 to 2.7████████████████████████
Provincial → Provincial5,80823.6%1.90.4 to 5.2███████████████████
Prefectural → Central2,87811.7%2.20.8 to 5.6█████████
Prefectural → Prefectural2,3829.7%2.10.8 to 4.6████████
Central → Central2,0218.2%1.80.7 to 4.5██████
Prefectural → Provincial1,9567.9%1.40.4 to 3.8██████
Provincial → Prefectural8033.3%2.50.7 to 5.9███
County → Provincial3141.3%0.80.2 to 2.8█
County → Central2851.2%2.30.7 to 5.4█
Central → Provincial1940.8%2.00.4 to 9.2█
Provincial → County1230.5%10.52.1 to 11.9
County → County1160.5%0.80.1 to 2.3
Central → Prefectural980.4%1.90.5 to 4.6
County → Prefectural740.3%3.11.2 to 6.6
Prefectural → County570.2%1.6-3.8 to 9.3
Central → County10.0%1.81.8 to 1.8

Most-cited held documents [csv]

Distinct held documents citing each one.

DocumentCited byid
中华人民共和国政府信息公开条例44630598████████████████████████
财政违法行为处罚处分条例3664657████████████████████
中华人民共和国政府信息公开条例23814436█████████████
中华人民共和国道路交通安全法21116863███████████
国务院对确需保留的行政审批项目设定行政许可的决定1933075██████████
中华人民共和国统计法实施条例12525098███████
医疗器械监督管理条例11011429██████
重大行政决策程序暂行条例11022456██████
国务院办公厅关于印发《政府信息公开信息处理费管理办法》的通知10830557██████
关于印发中小企业划型标准规定的通知10513719██████
中国共产党纪律处分条例10242090█████
事业单位人事管理条例10140465█████
中华人民共和国政府采购法实施条例9611438█████
企业信息公示暂行条例9144176█████
医疗机构管理条例8739181█████

Crawl frontier: most-cited documents not held [csv]

75,166 distinct documents are cited but not held. A title-only reference may name a document we hold under a different title.

Cited asTimes cited
人社部发〔2016〕140号113████████████████████████
《事业单位公开招聘人员暂行规定》100█████████████████████
《事业单位公开招聘违纪违规行为处理规定》96████████████████████
《事业单位人事管理回避规定》83██████████████████
国务院令第679号79█████████████████
《建筑业企业资质管理规定》78█████████████████
《关于进一步规范入学和就业体检项目维护乙肝表面抗原携带者入学和就业权利的通知》77████████████████
厅字〔2014〕26号71███████████████
《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要》70███████████████
皖交路〔2019〕144号70███████████████
人社部令第35号67██████████████
新人社发〔2013〕141号66██████████████
国务院令第713号65██████████████
《医疗机构管理条例实施细则》65██████████████
《放射性同位素与射线装置安全许可管理办法》62█████████████

Unequal-treatment provisions, by mechanism [csv]

Provisions that treat firms differently by ownership, origin or location. "Bans" are provisions that prohibit such discrimination.

MechanismImposesBans
Other01,687
Ownership / IP73658████████████████████████
SOE / private58855███████████████████
Local registration40538█████████████
Local production8515███
Local content4924██
Catalogue316█
Procurement90

Confidence scores are not informative yet: 100.0% of provisions carry the screen's default of 0.40.

Policy measures, by instrument [csv]

Each measure is one instrument found in a document, with how binding it is.

InstrumentOperative: the measure itselfDirective: tells lower levels to actWithdrawal: ends or phases out the measureTotal
Capital grant6,287487396,813████████████████████████
Tax relief2,096241492,386████████
Interest subsidy1,060135121,207████
Credit guarantee6069912717███
Guidance fund / state equity473864563██
Purchase subsidy420743497██
Trade-in / scrappage subsidy430575492██
Foreign investment rule3284047415█
Usage privilege276300306█
Policy lending233671301█
Local registration condition252150267█
Operating subsidy215411257█
Land and sites190180208█
Import duty relief on inputs100611162█
Vouchers for firms138170155█
First-of-a-kind support88210109
Procurement quota4915064
Local content condition3311044
Local production condition358043
Procurement preference363039
Feed-in tariff / power price subsidy335038
Import tariff218029
Electricity price concession241025

Stated rationales [csv]

Why a measure says it exists, each backed by a quote.

RationaleMeasures
Innovation & R&D782████████████████████████
Support for SMEs & private firms702██████████████████████
Employment & incomes546█████████████████
Industrial upgrading & strategic competitiveness518████████████████
Growth & domestic demand454██████████████
Opening up & foreign investment320██████████
Environment & climate319██████████
Regional development251████████
Exports & foreign trade195██████
Public health & product safety169█████
Sanitary, phytosanitary & biosafety144████
Attracting investment to the locality98███
Food security95███
Fair competition & market order56██
Supply-chain security & resilience41█
Technological self-reliance32█
National security & defence30█
Intellectual-property protection22█
Energy security10
Critical resources & minerals8
Financial & fiscal stability8
Data & cyber security6

Topic trees: size and depth [csv]

Depth = citation hops from a root document (0 = the root); a document reached from several roots counts once, at its shallowest depth.

TopicDocumentsLocalDepth 0Depth 1Depth 2Depth 3+
Equipment renewal and trade-in24720518513328████████████████████████
New energy vehicles21610341195043█████████████████████
Unified national market and fair competition18415421026218██████████████████
Medical devices and equipment1671284136261████████████████
Government procurement and domestic products1571373105472███████████████
Overcapacity and anti-involution1211031404634████████████
Charging infrastructure103882552818██████████
AI and computing power10267280182██████████
Pharmaceuticals and biopharma8054762110████████
Foreign investment625534892██████
Low-altitude economy625725910██████
Hydrogen and fuel cells5752336153██████
Drones and UAV technology544854900█████
Semiconductors and software4828172218█████
Specialised SMEs (专精特新)4837233103█████
Critical minerals and export control40433340████
Data as a factor of production342642280███
Solar PV3118312142███
New-type energy storage231731640██
Industrial machine tools (工业母机)201021530██
Robotics and embodied AI1382920█
Seed industry12101821█
Future industries1072710█
Consumption and services demand843410█
New materials833500█
First-of-kind major equipment (首台套)723400█
Shipbuilding and marine equipment302100
Biomanufacturing and the bioeconomy321200
Civil aircraft and aero-engines101000

Measure screen precision, by instrument [csv]

Ten randomly drawn screened measures per instrument, read against the quote and the document (reports/measure_validation_2026-10-25.csv). Checked by the AI assistant, not by an independent human coder; ten per class is indicative only.

InstrumentSampleRight instrument…and support to firmsPrecision95% interval
First-of-a-kind support101010100%72% to 100%
Interest subsidy109990%60% to 98%
Credit guarantee109990%60% to 98%
Tax relief108780%49% to 94%
Purchase subsidy108880%49% to 94%
Capital grant107470%40% to 89%
Local registration condition106660%31% to 83%
Guidance fund / state equity105550%24% to 76%
Trade-in / scrappage subsidy105550%24% to 76%
Procurement preference104440%17% to 69%
Local content condition109330%11% to 60%
Local production condition102220%6% to 51%
Unequal treatment: local production151515100%80% to 100%
Unequal treatment: local registration or tax108880%49% to 94%
Unequal treatment: own brand / own IP15121280%55% to 93%
Unequal treatment: local content (binding only)15101067%42% to 85%
Unequal treatment: ownership type (mostly private-firm support)106660%31% to 83%

Instrument rows were checked before the 25 October fix of the unequal-treatment screen, which removed most false local-production, local-content and own-brand hits (the unequal-treatment rows show the re-check after it). Procurement preference still matches 本地区 outside any condition.

Hand validation [csv]

Random samples coded by hand against the source text. Precision only: how often a hit is right, not how many true cases are missed.

ScreenSampleRightPrecision95% interval
Provincial response to a directive4040100.0%91.2% to 100.0%
Sector assignment403997.5%87.1% to 99.6%
Stated rationale403895.0%83.5% to 98.6%
Local-registration condition in an eligibility clause605693.3%84.1% to 97.4%

Responsiveness models: Cox diagnostics [csv]

Time from a State Council directive to a provincial document citing it as its basis, stratified by province, standard errors clustered by directive.

ModelPairsEventsDirectivesConcordanceMin PH pHR 2022–26 vs 2013–15
All panel provinces5,6441,3201,1460.6370.13280.43 (0.34 to 0.54)
Guangdong, Fujian, Anhui3,4311,1671,1460.6390.05480.39 (0.30 to 0.50)
Broad outcome (citation or title echo)5,6441,5391,1460.6210.01130.49 (0.39 to 0.61)

Recall proxy: of 1,288 pairs a title echo finds, the citation measure also finds 1,069 (83.0%).

Robustness: missing text and the responsiveness finding

A provincial document held without its body text cannot cite a directive, so a province-period with many empty documents looks less responsive than it is. Readable = more than 60 characters of body text, over the cohort's years and the year after. The headline is recomputed on province-years whose documents were at least 90% readable in the directive's year and the next.

CohortAll pairs Answered ≤1 yr Text-complete pairs Answered ≤1 yr
2013–15 1,06833.9% (31.1%–36.8%) 1,06833.9% (31.1%–36.8%)
2016–18 2,37524.2% (22.5%–25.9%) 2,37524.2% (22.5%–25.9%)
2019–21 1,12812.9% (11.1%–15.0%) 68813.1% (10.8%–15.8%)
2022–26 9009.0% (7.3%–11.1%) 6568.8% (6.9%–11.3%)
ProvinceCohortPairs Answered ≤1 yr Readable
Beijing2016–18422 4.0%100.0%
Beijing2019–21188 6.4%100.0%
Beijing2022–26151 7.3%100.0%
Anhui2013–15356 45.2%99.8%
Anhui2016–18422 52.1%99.0%
Anhui2019–21188 29.8%76.5%
Anhui2022–26151 15.2%70.5%
Fujian2013–15356 20.5%100.0%
Fujian2016–18422 24.4%100.0%
Fujian2019–21188 13.3%100.0%
Fujian2022–26149 11.4%100.0%
Hunan2016–18265 14.7%100.0%
Hunan2019–21188 3.2%100.0%
Hunan2022–26151 1.3%100.0%
Guangdong2013–15356 36.0%100.0%
Guangdong2016–18422 42.2%99.5%
Guangdong2019–21188 25.0%98.6%
Guangdong2022–26148 18.9%95.7%
Hainan2016–18422 4.0%100.0%
Hainan2019–21188 0.0%100.0%
Hainan2022–26150 0.0%100.0%

Responsiveness: pre-registered test

The headline that provinces answer far fewer State Council directives than they did, tested under a pre-analysis plan written before the analysis (reports/pap_responsiveness.md; results and caveats in reports/pap_responsiveness_results.md). RR = share of directives answered by a basis response within a year, 2022–25 against 2013–15, in Fujian, Guangdong and Anhui, on the 150 coder-labelled directives. "Failed" means the 95% interval includes 1; "shrank" that the decline is smaller or less certain than published; "held" that it is confidently at least a quarter. Run 2026-10-22; one coder's labels unverified.

EstimateRR95% intervalVerdict
P1, the primary estimate (standardised to the 2022–25 mix, corrected for collection coverage) 0.610.28–1.07failed
Sensitivity: 2013-15 mix (plan as written)0.580.28–1.01failed
Sensitivity: uncorrected0.540.24–0.99shrank
Sensitivity: uncorrected, province-years with coverage >= 0.8 only0.760.22–1.60failed
Sensitivity: XJ mandate labels0.570.26–1.01failed
S3: within two years, 2019–23 against 2013–150.800.56–1.09failed
S4: Cox hazard ratio (no coverage correction, clustered by directive)0.420.20–0.87
Published figure0.45
Rival explanationRR95% interval Result
R2 collection coverage (P1 uncorrected)0.540.24–0.99
R3 directive mix: M2 directives only0.690.26–1.32accounts for part
R3 directive mix: unstandardised, uncorrected ratio0.46
R8 extractor recall by cohort0.690.32–1.22accounts for part
R9 dating: own-dated responses only0.610.28–1.07does not account
R7 copying without citing: S1 with B1 (θ=0.013)0.810.51–1.19accounts for the decline
R7 copying without citing: S1 with B1 (θ=0.05)0.600.32–0.97does not account
R6 authority moved to the Party: S1 with B4 (θ=0.05)0.870.47–1.57accounts for the decline

"Accounts" results for copying without citing (θ = 0.013) and Party-basis echoes rest on few documents: the low-overlap text matches behind the first are, by the coders' labels, not adoptions in recent years, and the second are mostly annual legislative plans. See the results note.

Known gaps