LATEST
外 Waitan Ludi Policy Terminal China industrial-policy monitor · updated 2026-10-25
view asAnalystMonitorPolicymakerBusinessLegal
Monitor view Opens on Compliance: documentary evidence firm by firm. Summary
Insights · evidence from 1,146 State Council directives and their provincial echoes

How Chinese policy travels, what it favours, and what it moves

One evidence base in six views. Every figure states its sample, its uncertainty and how it was measured. The data behind each chart can be downloaded.

What policy publication does, and does not, move: prices, timing and exports.

Event study

Publication of a policy document is not market news; the decision was priced earlier

+0.03%
mean 3-day abnormal return, EV basket, 88 central NEV documents
p = 0.94
against 400 placebo draws of random dates
2.8% vs 3.1%
typical move on publication days vs random days
EV basket (NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, KARS) around central NEV documents, vs MSCI China
-2.0%-1.0%+0.0%+1.0%+2.0%+3.0%+4.0%-10-50+5+10Document published

Band: 95% interval across events.

Why it mattersBy the time a notice reaches the 政策文件库, the market has moved: decisions surface first in State Council executive meetings, ministry press conferences and drafts for comment. Value for an investor lies upstream (the Horizon page) and in the provincial money that follows months later.
Data table
BasketAssetsEventsMean CAR[0,+2]tPlacebo pMean |CAR|Placebo |CAR|
EV makers & EV ETFNIO, XPEV, LI, KARS88+0.03%0.0790.942.76%3.12%
Solar & polysiliconJKS, DQ, CSIQ, KGRN15-0.47%-0.2620.7384.36%3.31%
China consumer discretionaryCHIQ23-0.48%-1.5780.0431.17%1.00%
How we know

Market model on MSCI China (MCHI), estimated over trading days −250 to −21; events one per five trading days; US-listed assets only (no Chinese hosts used).

  • US listings trade after Beijing hours, so day 0 includes the full news day.
  • A null on average does not exclude large single-event moves: the biggest were MIIT catalogue releases.
events.csv
Where documents did move prices

The largest moves came on eligibility catalogues, not headline directives

DateDocumentCAR[0,+2]CAR[−10,−1]
2020-05-26免征车辆购置税的新能源汽车车型目录（第三十二批）+9.2%-2.6%
2020-11-27《道路机动车辆生产企业及产品》（第338批）、《新能源汽车推广应用推荐车型目录》（2020年第12批）、《享受车船税减免优惠的节约能源 使用-9.1%+10.8%
2024-07-01五部门关于公布智能网联汽车“车路云一体化”应用试点城市名单的通知+8.9%+1.1%
2020-08-21《道路机动车辆生产企业及产品》（第335批）、《新能源汽车推广应用推荐车型目录》（2020年第9批）、《享受车船税减免优惠的节约能源 使用新+8.3%-0.5%
2025-03-13《道路机动车辆生产企业及产品》（第392批）、《享受车船税减免优惠的节约能源 使用新能源汽车车型目录》（第七十一批）、《减免车辆购置税的新能-7.6%+3.2%
2025-12-31《道路机动车辆生产企业及产品》（第402批）、《享受车船税减免优惠的节约能源 使用新能源汽车车型目录》（第八十一批）、《减免车辆购置税的新能-7.6%+8.6%
Why it mattersCatalogues decide which models qualify for subsidies and tax exemptions. They are firm-specific news, the kind of policy a firm-level monitor should flag on release.
How we know

Absolute 3-day CAR, EV basket.

  • Single events; not a statistical result.
Policy calendar

A province's implementing document follows a State Council directive by a median of 151 days

124 days
Anhui (485 responses)
159 days
Guangdong (441 responses)
155 days
Fujian (241 responses)
197 days
Hunan (63 responses)
Why it mattersLocal implementing rules are where targets, eligibility and money are set, so a central announcement usually takes effect regionally some five months later, and later still in provinces that restate little. That is the window between a headline and its effect on regional sales. Demand programmes move faster (see the sector lag card).
How we know

Median lag among directive–province pairs that were answered, by province.

  • Lags are for all State Council directives, not only economic ones.
responses.csv
Trade

China's electric-car exports grew more than 300-fold in eight years

$36.4bn
battery-electric car exports, 2025
331×
the 2017 value
$77bn
lithium-ion batteries, 2025
China's exports, US$ billion a year
Battery-electric cars (HS 870380)Lithium-ion batteries (HS 850760)
$0$20bn$40bn$60bn$80bn201720182019202020212022202320242025EU dutiesLithium-ion batteries $77bnBattery-electric cars $36bn
Why it mattersA decade of production-side support now shows up in trade. The provincial measures in this corpus are the documentary trail behind those capacities.
Data table
YearElectric cars $bnLi-ion batteries $bn
20170.117.98
20180.1310.83
20190.4413.03
20201.5815.94
20218.5928.32
202220.0950.92
202334.1365.01
202431.9761.13
202536.476.75
How we know

UN Comtrade, China as reporter, annual, summed over partners.

  • Values as reported by China. Monthly 2025 data are not yet in Comtrade; annual 2025 is.
Where the cars go

The EU's share of China's electric-car exports, before and after duties

11%
EU-27 share, 2017
37%
EU-27 share, 2024
27%
EU-27 share, 2025
Destination shares of China's battery-electric car exports (value)
EU-27United StatesRest of world
0%20%40%60%80%100%201720182019202020212022202320242025Rest of world 73%EU-27 27%United States 0.3%
Why it mattersTrade diversion is visible in the destination mix; the EU share is the one to watch after the 2024 duties.
Data table
YearTotal $bnEU-27United StatesSwitzerlandRest of world
20170.1111.0%1.6%0.00%87.4%
20180.1310.1%1.8%0.09%88.0%
20190.4431.4%0.6%0.08%67.9%
20201.5854.4%5.8%0.80%39.0%
20218.5953.2%2.8%0.50%43.6%
202220.0947.2%2.3%0.27%50.3%
202334.1339.5%1.0%0.23%59.3%
202431.9736.7%0.4%0.03%62.8%
202536.426.9%0.3%0.12%72.7%
How we know

UN Comtrade annual, China as reporter, HS 870380, by partner.

Sources: Chinese government publications held in this corpus (State Council and ministry libraries, provincial government portals), UN Comtrade, the EU Publications Office, US-listed market prices. Built 2026-10-25. Statistics: Kaplan–Meier and Cox models (lifelines), logit and OLS (statsmodels). Findings are descriptive of published documents; they are not legal determinations.