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外 Waitan Ludi Policy Terminal China industrial-policy monitor · updated 2026-10-25

Sector radar / Hydrogen

Hydrogen rank 15 of 16 (range 6–15 under random weights) · evidence moderate · set precision 9/10

Sector brief: what Chinese policy is doing in this sector, how it treats foreign firms, who is named, and what China sells abroad. Every figure links to its documents. Goods: Hydrogen (2804.10); electrolysers have no code of their own.

Policy momentum -0.46Provincial spread -0.13Money +0.33Local preference -0.36Substitution +1.04Export growth -1.42Exports to EU, growth –EU share -1.82Export / import +1.73EU dependence -1.11
52
Documents, last 24 months
momentum 0.66× · central 2, provincial 18, city 32
14
Provinces active (36 m)
Beijing, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Shanghai, Zhejiang …
41
Documents with money measures
36% of 115
3
Local-preference documents
3% · 2 name foreign-owned firms
$827k
China's exports, 2025
-23% a year since 2019
1%
to the EU-27
$8k
0%
China's share of EU imports, 2025
0 points since 2019 · €0bn
309.3×
Exports per $ imported
imports $3k
0 / 1
Start / end in 12 months
EU countervailing cases held: 0

EU target: Net-Zero Industry Act, Regulation (EU) 2024/1735: electrolysers and fuel cells are strategic net-zero technologies; 40% manufacturing benchmark. China supplies 0% of the EU's imports of these goods from outside the EU (2025; imports, not consumption).

Next five years: named in 11 of the 15 15th Five-Year Plan outlines held (13.2 mentions per 100k characters), against 6 of 7 14th-plan outlines (5.6): 2.4× as dense; up in 3 and down in 0 of the 4 places with both. Ordos: “支持企业“走出去”拓展海外贸易市场,培育发展外贸新业态新模式,发展服务贸易,支持企业参与国际氢能、储能、碳中和等绿色技术合作,推动绿色产品认证与国际互认,探索发展数字贸易。” (outline) Plan watch.

Reading, by audience

Risk and trade policyPolicy output on hydrogen is slowing relative to the rest of the corpus (52 documents in 24 months, in 14 provinces). China exported $827k of these goods in 2025, -23% a year since 2019; 1% went to the EU-27. Exports to the EU peaked in 2023 ($10k) and are -20% since, while exports to the world are +290%: the EU share is falling as sales go elsewhere. From the EU side, China supplied 0% of the EU's imports of these goods from outside the EU in 2025 (-0 points since 2019). No EU countervailing case held on these goods.
Compliance and legal3 of 115 documents (3%) carry a provision or condition that favours local or Chinese firms or production, 2 naming foreign-owned firms as the ones disadvantaged. 0 sector measures come into force and 1 expire in the next 12 months.
Investors41 documents (36%) carry a fiscal or financial support measure. 261 firms are named on lists in these documents, 24 of them foreign-owned or joint ventures.
ResearchSector set: 88 documents whose title names the sector, plus 57 in its topic tree (115 together). Measures and preference are keyword and model screens: leads to check against the text. Momentum is relative to the corpus, which reduces but does not remove the effect of uneven collection.
Topic tree: hydrogen → Exposure check for this sector → Subsidy file (anti-subsidy headings) → Ask the evidence about this sector ↗ All sectors → Subscribe (Atom) JSON Print brief

Documents per year

CentralProvincialCityCounty
01020301314151617181920212223242526023

Documents held, so collection shapes the curve; the momentum ratio is relative to the corpus.

China's exports, USD bn

WorldEU-27US
$0$0.0bn$0.0bn$0.0bn$0.0bn2019202020212022202320242025World $0.0bnEU-27 $0.0bn
Headingworldgrowth/yrEU-27EU since 2023share of EU imports
Hydrogen 280410$827k-23%$8k -20% 0%

Central → local: who restated the sector's central documents

DateCentral documentprovincesmedian lag
2022-03-23氢能产业发展中长期规划(2021-2035年)
Medium- to Long-Term Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021–2035)
8330 d trace →
2023-07-19关于印发《氢能产业标准体系建设指南(2023版)》的通知
Notice on the Issuance of the ‘Guidelines for the Development of a Standardisation System for the Hydrogen En…
国标委联〔2023〕34号
2698 d trace →
2026-04-27财政部关于下达2026年节能减排补助资金预算(第一批)的通知
Notice from the Ministry of Finance on the Allocation of the 2026 Budget for Energy Conservation and Emission…
财建〔2026〕92号
260 d trace →
2026-03-06工业和信息化部 财政部 国家发展改革委关于开展氢能综合应用试点工作的通知
Notice from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance and the National Dev…
工信部联节〔2026〕59号
0none held trace →

Across all State Council directives the median lag to a province's implementing document is about 151 days (middle half 84–259).

Where in China

Provincedocuments (36 m)leanswith moneyfavouringlocal-only programmes
Guangdong30×2.2111 0% of 67 exposure →
Beijing5×1.430 13% of 100 exposure →
Inner Mongolia5×1.500 1% of 154 exposure →
Jilin4×3.400 4% of 116 exposure →
Hubei3×1.120 7% of 266 exposure →
Shanghai2–10 15% of 620 exposure →
Sichuan2–00 8% of 451 exposure →
Fujian1–00 2% of 199 exposure →
Shanxi1–00 0% of 44 exposure →
Yunnan1–00 3% of 96 exposure →
Guangxi1–00 0% of 34 exposure →
Chongqing1–00 0% of 67 exposure →

Latest central documents

2026-04-27财政部关于下达2026年节能减排补助资金预算(第一批)的通知
Notice from the Ministry of Finance on the Allocation of the 2026 Budget for Energy Conservation and Emission…
财建〔2026〕92号
2026-03-06工业和信息化部 财政部 国家发展改革委关于开展氢能综合应用试点工作的通知
Notice from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance and the National Dev…
工信部联节〔2026〕59号
2023-07-19关于印发《氢能产业标准体系建设指南(2023版)》的通知
Notice on the Issuance of the ‘Guidelines for the Development of a Standardisation System for the Hydrogen En…
国标委联〔2023〕34号
2022-03-23氢能产业发展中长期规划(2021-2035年)
Medium- to Long-Term Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021–2035)
2020-09-16关于开展燃料电池汽车示范应用的通知
Notice on the Implementation of a Demonstration Programme for Fuel Cell Vehicles
财建〔2020〕394号

Latest local documents

2026-10-08关于《加快推动氢能产业高质量发展的若干措施》的起草说明
Explanatory Notes on the Drafting of the ‘Several Measures to Accelerate the High-Quality Development of the …
Guangzhou Municipal Development and Reform Commission
2026-09-30关于佛山市广东燃料电池汽车示范城市群2026年中央节能减排补助资金补贴计划名单的公示
Public Notice Regarding the List of Recipients for the 2026 Central Government Energy Conservation and Emissi…
Foshan Municipal Bureau of Development and Reform
2026-09-15关于公示广州市中央节能减排补助资金燃料电池汽车示范城市群第四年度推广应用国家补贴安排计划(第二批)的公告
Announcement on the Public Notice of the Plan for the Allocation of National Subsidies for the Fourth Year of…
Guangzhou Municipal Development and Reform Commission
2026-09-15关于公示广州市燃料电池汽车示范城市群第四年度推广应用市级补贴安排计划(第二批)的公告
Notice on the Public Consultation Regarding the Arrangements for Municipal Subsidies for the Fourth Year of t…
Guangzhou Municipal Development and Reform Commission
2026-09-15关于公示广州市燃料电池汽车示范城市群第四年度推广应用省级补贴安排计划(第一批)的公告
Announcement on the Public Notice of the Plan for the Allocation of Provincial Subsidies for the Fourth Year …
Guangzhou Municipal Development and Reform Commission
2026-09-15关于公示广州市燃料电池汽车示范城市群第四年度推广应用市级补贴安排计划(第二批)的公告
announcement · Guangzhou Municipal Development and Reform Commission
2026-09-07道氏科技氢能及新材料产业园水土保持设施验收报备情况公告
announcement · 佛山市禅城区住房城乡建设和水务局
2026-08-21佛山市发展和改革局关于开展广东燃料电池汽车示范城市群2026年中央节能减排补助资金申报工作的通知
Notice from the Foshan Municipal Development and Reform Bureau Regarding the Application Process for the 2026…
Foshan Municipal Bureau of Development and Reform
2026-08-06关于公示广州市荔湾区、花都区中央节能减排补助资金燃料电池汽车示范城市群第四年度推广应用国家补贴安排计划(第一批)的公告
Announcement on the Public Notice of the Arrangement Plan for National Subsidies for the Fourth Year of the P…
Guangzhou Municipal Development and Reform Commission
2026-08-06关于“绿色化工和氢能产业园区智能消防系统项目(一期)”新建民用建筑项目防空地下室易地建设审批公示
public notice · Maoming Municipal Bureau of Development and Reform

Measures

MeasureGroupFoundchecked precision
Capital grantFiscal and financial support3470%
Operating subsidyFiscal and financial support17not checked
Interest subsidyFiscal and financial support1290%
Purchase subsidyFiscal and financial support980%
Usage privilegeUsage privileges6not checked
Tax reliefFiscal and financial support480%
First-of-a-kind supportFiscal and financial support3100%
Guidance fund / state equityFiscal and financial support250%
Credit guaranteeFiscal and financial support190%
Vouchers for firmsFiscal and financial support1not checked

Precision from the Data page: samples of ten, checked by the AI assistant; a human-coded sample is still to come.

Money on the table

关于佛山市广东燃料电池汽车示范城市群2026年中央节能减排补助资金补贴计划名单的公示 2026-09-30 · Capital grant
附件:1.佛山市广东燃料电池汽车示范城市群2026年中央节能减排补助资金补贴计划名单(车辆推广应用)
佛山市发展和改革局关于开展广东燃料电池汽车示范城市群2026年中央节能减排补助资金申报工作的通知 2026-08-21 · Purchase subsidy
1.广东城市群燃料电池汽车推广应用补贴申报汇总表
广州市发展和改革委员会关于组织开展氢能产业发展资金2026年第一批燃料电池汽车示范运营补贴申报工作的通知 2026-06-26 · Operating subsidy
为推动我市氢能产业高质量发展,加快燃料电池汽车推广应用,根据《广州市人民政府办公厅关于印发加快推动氢能产业高质量发展若干措施的通知》(穗府办规〔2024〕16号),以及《广州市发展和改革委员会关于印发支持氢能产业发展资金管理办法的通知》(穗发改规字〔2025〕5号)第十条有关要求,我委组织开展氢能产业发展资金2026年第一批燃料电池汽车示范运营补贴申报工作。
广州市发展和改革委员会关于组织开展氢能产业发展资金2026年第一批燃料电池汽车示范运营补贴申报工作的通知 2026-06-26 · Operating subsidy
为推动我市氢能产业高质量发展,加快燃料电池汽车推广应用,根据《广州市人民政府办公厅关于印发加快推动氢能产业高质量发展若干措施的通知》(穗府办规〔2024〕16号),以及《广州市发展和改革委员会关于印发支持氢能产业发展资金管理办法的通知》(穗发改规字〔2025〕5号)第十条有关要求,我委组织开展氢能产业发展资金2026年第一批燃料电池汽车示范运营补贴申报工作。
关于下达本市2026年节能减排专项资金和超长期特别国债资金安排计划(第九批)的通知 2026-06-18 · Capital grant
附表:上海市2026年节能减排专项资金和超长期特别国债资金安排计划(第九批)
财政部关于下达2026年节能减排补助资金预算(第一批)的通知 2026-04-27 · Purchase subsidy
2.2026年度新能源汽车推广应用补助资金清算汇总表

Rules that favour local or Chinese firms

ProvisionHowDisadvantages
““补改投”方式的支持比例不超过项目研发投入的50%,投资占项目单位的股比不超过30%。” Ownership, own-brand or own-IP testforeign-owned firms
“在我省注册成立的氢能企业,符合条件的,可享受西部大开发、高新技术企业等税收优惠政策。” Local registration / taxother regions
“”宋向清建议,加速推动氢能产业化、规模化、品牌化、标准化进程,尽快出台国家氢能产业发展规划、国家氢能行业标准,建立国家氢能产业发展基金,加快加氢站布局,扶持一批自主知识产权领先的氢能产业龙头企业,支持氢能企业上市融资。” Ownership, own-brand or own-IP testforeign-owned firms

Keyword and model screens: leads to check against the document, not findings. Newest first, one per document.

Coming into force (12 months)

No in-force date in the next 12 months.

Expiring (12 months)

Firms named most often

Listed groups: reported government grants

No listed group in this sector with HKEX grants extracted.

How this sector is defined

88 documents whose title matches 氢能|氢燃料|加氢|制氢, plus 57 in the topic tree hydrogen; 115 together. Goods: HS 280410. Measures and preference provisions are screen output; open each document for the clause.