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Sector radar / Plan watch
Each province and city sets out the industries it will build for 2026–30 in its outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan, published in the months after the national one. What the outlines name comes before the funding lists and before the trade figures. This counts, for every radar sector and for the future industries the plans name, how many outlines held mention it and how often (per 100,000 characters), against the 14th-plan outlines (2021–25) held.
Central 15th-plan documents held that fall in a radar sector, the provinces that have restated each so far, and when restatements usually come: the 25th percentile and median lag from the sector's earlier central documents (one to six years before) to each province's first citing document held.
| Issued | Plan | Sector | restated so far | typical province restates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | 工业和信息化部等九部门关于印发《智能网联新能源汽车产业发展“十五五”规划》的通知 | New-energy vehicles | none held yet | May 2027 – Mar 2028 (238–562 days; n = 46) |
| 2026-08-28 | 工业和信息化部等十部门关于印发《医药工业发展“十五五”规划》的通知 | Pharmaceuticals | none held yet | Feb 2027 – Jul 2027 (179–311 days; n = 20) |
The wave has begun elsewhere: of the 28 central 15th-plan documents held, 14 already have a local restatement held, from 14 provinces, the first a median 49 days after the central document.
Subscribe (Atom) to every local document held that cites a central 15th-plan document, as it arrives.
Lags are measured on documents held: a restatement we do not hold, or a recent document whose restatements are still to come, shortens or lengthens them. Not observed is not non-compliance.
The six marked REC are the future industries listed in the CPC Central Committee's recommendations for the 15th plan (October 2025; the text is not in the corpus), where hydrogen and fusion are one item: hydrogen is a radar sector, below. The others are the emerging industries and programmes the outlines name beside them.
| Term, and where a 15th-plan outline names it | 15th: outlines | per 100k | 14th: outlines | per 100k | change | within place ↑ / ↓ | titled docs 24m / before | reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New materials 我市深入实施工业强市战略，加快推进新型工业化，推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合，有色金属、机械装备、新材料和“矿业+”经济等重点产业集群效应进一步凸显，新质生产力加快形成，为高质量发展增添新动能。 — Longyan | 14/15 | 23.8 | 7/7 | 16.3 | 1.5× | 3 / 1 | 17 / 13 | steady |
| "AI+" programmes in ai 依托中国移动、中国联通、中国电信、安天科技等企业，推进“人工智能+网络安全”引擎等信息安全及算力基础设施项目，推动哈尔滨、大庆加快建设省级数据标注基地。 — Heilongjiang | 14/15 | 14.8 | 1/7 | 0.2 | 95.4× | 4 / 0 | 70 / 2 | up |
| "Future industries" (the term) 遵循科技创新与产业发展规律，制定支持未来产业发展的引导性政策，加强规则、标准等制度供给。 — Inner Mongolia | 14/15 | 12.6 | 6/7 | 2.6 | 4.8× | 4 / 0 | 16 / 11 | up |
| Low-altitude economy in drones 培育壮大低空经济、数字经济等新兴产业，构建以创新策源、标准引领、品牌提升为特征的先进制造业体系。 — Fancheng (Xiangyang) | 14/15 | 10.9 | 0/7 | 0.0 | new | 4 / 0 | 23 / 12 | new |
| Quantum technology REC “祖冲之三号”量子计算原型机领跑全球，“东方超环”创造“亿度千秒”世界纪录，“天都”双星实现绕月编队飞行。 — Anhui | 12/15 | 9.5 | 5/7 | 6.1 | 1.6× | 3 / 1 | 2 / 5 | up |
| Biomanufacturing REC 建设生物制造创新中心，加快合成生物前沿技术攻关和产业化应用，深化“煤—化—生物”跨界融合，推动合成生物产业与能源、材料、医… — Ordos | 12/15 | 6.7 | 2/7 | 0.5 | 14.4× | 4 / 0 | 11 / 5 | up |
| Commercial space and satellite internet …专项，开放共享创新资源，共建先进材料、绿色低碳、生物制造等领域实验室，强化跨区域跨领域协作攻关，推动智能驾驶、卫星互联网、新型储能、智能传感等领域产出一批原始创新成果，打造学科内涵关联、空间分布集聚的原始创新集群。 — Chongqing | 8/15 | 5.1 | 2/7 | 0.5 | 10.9× | 3 / 0 | 3 / 5 | up |
| Embodied AI and humanoid robots REC in robots …川时代动力电池生产基地项目建设，布局固态电池、硅碳负极以及废旧动力电池回收利用等项目，拓展电动船舶、低空经济、具身智能等应用场景，力争营收达到3000亿元。 — Yibin | 11/15 | 4.9 | 0/7 | 0.0 | new | 3 / 0 | 6 / 0 | new |
| 6G REC …，提升卫星总装及关键零部件研制、系统研发及运控、时空数据处理能力，建设卫星互联网运营服务平台，推进卫星互联网与第六代移动通信、人工智能等技术深度融合应用发展，完善涵盖“原材料—芯片模组—制造与发射—地面设备与终端—系统集成及运营服务”… — Chongqing | 12/15 | 3.9 | 1/7 | 0.2 | 25.1× | 4 / 0 | 0 / 0 | up |
| Brain-computer interfaces REC …设计、中试、生产、服务、运营全环节落地应用，培育智算芯片、新一代人工智能大模型等产业，强化人工智能与低空飞行、脑机接口等技术融合和产品创新。 — Chongqing | 8/15 | 3.1 | 0/7 | 0.0 | new | 3 / 0 | 6 / 0 | new |
| Nuclear fusion REC …量子科技产业集群企业数居全国首位，全国首个可训练万亿级参数规模的国产化算力集群建成运营、智能算力超4.8万P，聚变能源商业化进程走在世界前列。 — Anhui | 4/15 | 1.4 | 1/7 | 0.6 | 2.2× | 2 / 0 | 0 / 0 | steady |
| Metaverse 大力发展数字科技产业，聚焦人工智能、元宇宙、工业软件等高潜能行业，集聚一批具有自主研发能力、行业竞争力的龙头企业和高成长型企业，培育若干独角兽、瞪羚企业… — Huangpu (Shanghai) | 5/15 | 0.4 | 0/7 | 0.0 | new | 1 / 0 | 3 / 3 | steady |
Each sector's title pattern from the radar, applied to the outline text; beside it, how much of the EU's imports from outside the EU come from China.
| Term, and where a 15th-plan outline names it | 15th: outlines | per 100k | 14th: outlines | per 100k | change | within place ↑ / ↓ | titled docs 24m / before | China, EU imports | reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI and computing 全国最大国产化单集群万卡智算中心建成投用，哈尔滨航空集群、绥哈大齐生物制造集群列入国家先进制造业集群，单机容量世界最大的百万千瓦水电机组投… — Heilongjiang | 15/15 | 87.7 | 7/7 | 17.6 | 5.0× | 4 / 0 | 183 / 41 | 51% | up |
| Drones and low-altitude 培育壮大低空经济、数字经济等新兴产业，构建以创新策源、标准引领、品牌提升为特征的先进制造业体系。 — Fancheng (Xiangyang) | 14/15 | 38.7 | 5/7 | 1.4 | 27.7× | 4 / 0 | 39 / 18 | 76% | up |
| Batteries and storage 成为全省新能源汽车及动力电池等重点产业链主要承载地，人工智能、新能源等重点产业链协同发展地，白酒、纺织入选全省重点发展优势产业链。 — Yibin | 15/15 | 18.0 | 6/7 | 6.8 | 2.6× | 4 / 0 | 47 / 28 | 90% | up |
| Seeds 加强种质资源数智化管理，开展高油高产大豆、耐密宜机收玉米、优质高产水稻等品种智能育种技术攻坚。 — Heilongjiang | 14/15 | 15.7 | 7/7 | 9.0 | 1.7× | 3 / 1 | 23 / 8 | 9% | up |
| New-energy vehicles …链群，着力打造万亿级先进制造业集群，加快推动西安航空集群等国家级先进制造业集群向世界级跃升，推动半导体及光子、新能源汽车等建设国家级先进制造业集群，推动产业迈向中高端，提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平。 — Xi'an | 14/15 | 15.1 | 7/7 | 10.6 | 1.4× | 3 / 1 | 143 / 104 | 36% | steady |
| Semiconductors …组群发展的产业链群，着力打造万亿级先进制造业集群，加快推动西安航空集群等国家级先进制造业集群向世界级跃升，推动半导体及光子、新能源汽车等建设国家级先进制造业集群，推动产业迈向中高端，提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平。 — Xi'an | 14/15 | 14.9 | 6/7 | 12.0 | 1.2× | 2 / 2 | 34 / 20 | 10% | steady |
| Robotics 做大机器人产业，构建机器人软硬一体化产业生态，夯实机器人技术底座，完善精密减速器、伺服电机、控制系统、感知传感器等关键零… — Heilongjiang | 14/15 | 13.6 | 7/7 | 5.1 | 2.6× | 4 / 0 | 23 / 10 | 25% | up |
| Hydrogen 支持企业“走出去”拓展海外贸易市场，培育发展外贸新业态新模式，发展服务贸易，支持企业参与国际氢能、储能、碳中和等绿色技术合作，推动绿色产品认证与国际互认，探索发展数字贸易。 — Ordos | 11/15 | 13.2 | 6/7 | 5.6 | 2.4× | 3 / 0 | 35 / 28 | 0% | up |
| Pharmaceuticals 搭建医药CMO、CDMO专业化服务平台，吸引上下游配套企业集聚，培育特色医药产业集群。 — Sanming | 14/15 | 11.5 | 7/7 | 10.4 | 1.1× | 2 / 2 | 62 / 25 | 4% | steady |
| Solar PV 筑牢库布其沙漠绿化带、淤地坝、光伏治沙带、沙漠锁边林草带“四道防线”，实现库布其沙漠需治尽治。 — Ordos | 15/15 | 9.8 | 5/7 | 5.9 | 1.7× | 4 / 0 | 73 / 28 | 98% | up |
| Critical minerals 构建现代化产业体系取得积极成效，80多种产品产能全国第一，乳制品、稀土新材料、现代煤化工入选国家级先进制造业集群，绿色氢氨醇产业加速起势，算力和智算规模居全国前列。 — Inner Mongolia | 13/15 | 9.5 | 5/7 | 1.6 | 6.1× | 2 / 1 | 19 / 3 | 83% | steady |
| Medical devices 协同打造战略性新兴产业和未来产业高质量发展集聚地，发展创新药、智慧医疗装备产业，打造成渝低空经济带，构建“氢走廊”“电走廊”“智行走廊”等应用场景。 — Chongqing | 12/15 | 5.3 | 6/7 | 4.7 | 1.1× | 3 / 1 | 89 / 26 | 10% | steady |
| EV charging 优化充电设施布局，推进居民区和公共机构充电设施建设，实施电网改造，建设樊城220千伏输变电工程。 — Fancheng (Xiangyang) | 15/15 | 5.1 | 7/7 | 4.7 | 1.1× | 3 / 1 | 82 / 62 | 59% | steady |
| Civil aviation 3．航空航天：突破关键核心技术，实现国产化替代，全面提升大飞机配套能力，完善产业链条，形成国产大飞机总装集成能力。 — Xi'an | 8/15 | 2.1 | 6/7 | 2.5 | 0.9× | 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 | 5% | steady |
| Machine tools 开展电主轴等数控机床关键环节集中攻关，发展立式、卧式等高精度高性能工业母机。 — Heilongjiang | 6/15 | 2.0 | 3/7 | 1.2 | 1.6× | 1 / 1 | 17 / 11 | 21% | steady |
| Shipbuilding 大力发展工程机械、工业母机、仪器仪表、航空制造、电力装备、船舶与海洋工程装备、物流设备等高端整体装备、成套装备，加快新型装备研发制造应用。 — Anhui | 6/15 | 1.2 | 2/7 | 1.1 | 1.1× | 2 / 0 | 3 / 3 | 25% | steady |
What each 15th-plan outline leans towards: terms it names at 1.5 times or more the density of the 15th-plan outlines together (3 mentions or more).
| Place | level | dated | characters | leans towards (× the pooled density) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shanxi 山西省 | province | 2026-03-26 | 66,449 | Critical minerals 1.9× (12) · EV charging 1.8× (6) · Solar PV 1.7× (11) |
| Inner Mongolia 内蒙古自治区 | province | 2026-03-06 | 51,231 | Critical minerals 7.0× (34) · "Future industries" (the term) 1.7× (11) |
| Jilin 吉林省 | province | 2026-05-06 | 80,468 | Hydrogen 4.7× (50) · Embodied AI and humanoid robots 4.0× (16) · Commercial space and satellite internet 2.9× (12) |
| Heilongjiang 黑龙江省 | province | 2026-03-01 | 114,953 | Machine tools 3.4× (8) · Brain-computer interfaces 2.5× (9) · Seeds 2.4× (43) |
| Anhui 安徽省 14+15 | province | 2026-03-14 | 77,546 | Nuclear fusion 9.5× (10) · Quantum technology 4.9× (36) · Shipbuilding 4.3× (4) |
| Chongqing 重庆市 14+15 | province | 2026-02-12 | 200,325 | Brain-computer interfaces 2.5× (16) · Medical devices 2.4× (26) · Commercial space and satellite internet 2.4× (24) |
| Ordos 鄂尔多斯市 14+15 | city | 2026-05-18 | 54,754 | Solar PV 4.5× (24) · Batteries and storage 2.5× (25) · Biomanufacturing 2.2× (8) |
| Sanming 三明市 | city | 2026-04-28 | 81,085 | Pharmaceuticals 2.7× (25) · Critical minerals 2.5× (19) · Drones and low-altitude 2.1× (66) |
| Longyan 龙岩市 | city | 2026-03-30 | 72,988 | New materials 2.2× (38) · Critical minerals 1.7× (12) |
| Zhengzhou 郑州市 | city | 2026-05-27 | 71,250 | New-energy vehicles 1.6× (17) |
| Yibin 宜宾市 | city | 2026-06-03 | 59,378 | Shipbuilding 4.3× (3) · Solar PV 3.1× (18) · Batteries and storage 3.0× (32) |
| Kunming 昆明市 14+15 | city | 2026-03-27 | 59,388 | Seeds 1.8× (17) · Pharmaceuticals 1.6× (11) |
| Xi'an 西安市 | city | 2026-04-01 | 94,774 | Civil aviation 4.0× (8) · Nuclear fusion 3.1× (4) · Semiconductors 2.4× (34) |
| Huangpu (Shanghai) 黄浦区 | district | 2026-02-12 | 32,717 | no term stands out |
| Fancheng (Xiangyang) 樊城区 | district | 2026-06-30 | 63,327 | Low-altitude economy 4.3× (30) · Drones and low-altitude 2.7× (66) · EV charging 1.9× (6) |
14th-plan outlines held: Ordos, Shanghai, Anhui, Qingdao, Luoyang, Chongqing, Kunming.
Across the 16 radar sectors, a sector's density in the 7 14th-plan outlines held against what followed in 2021–25 (Spearman's ρ, two-sided permutation p):
So the outlines lead policy, not trade, in what we hold. Exploratory, not pre-specified: chosen after the 15th-plan counts were seen. Densities and document counts come from the same corpus and share its coverage, which inflates the first ρ; n is small.