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外 Waitan Ludi Policy Terminal China industrial-policy monitor · updated 2026-10-25

Sector radar / Seeds

Seeds rank 12 of 16 (range 7–14 under random weights) · evidence moderate · set precision 9/10

Sector brief: what Chinese policy is doing in this sector, how it treats foreign firms, who is named, and what China sells abroad. Every figure links to its documents. Goods: Seeds for sowing (1209).

Policy momentum +0.66Provincial spread -0.13Money +0.14Local preference +0.06Substitution -0.38Export growth -0.41Exports to EU, growth -0.53EU share +0.93Export / import -1.08EU dependence -0.86
24
Documents, last 24 months
momentum 1.29× · central 0, provincial 14, city 10
14
Provinces active (36 m)
Beijing, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Jiangsu, Anhui …
30
Documents with money measures
32% of 93
4
Local-preference documents
4% · 4 name foreign-owned firms
$172m
China's exports, 2025
4% a year since 2019
34%
to the EU-27
$59m · 4% a year
9%
China's share of EU imports, 2025
-3 points since 2019 · €0bn
0.3×
Exports per $ imported
imports $521m
0 / 0
Start / end in 12 months
EU countervailing cases held: 0

Next five years: named in 14 of the 15 15th Five-Year Plan outlines held (15.7 mentions per 100k characters), against 7 of 7 14th-plan outlines (9.0): 1.7× as dense; up in 3 and down in 1 of the 4 places with both. Heilongjiang: “加强种质资源数智化管理,开展高油高产大豆、耐密宜机收玉米、优质高产水稻等品种智能育种技术攻坚。” (outline) Plan watch.

Reading, by audience

Risk and trade policyPolicy output on seeds is accelerating relative to the rest of the corpus (24 documents in 24 months, in 14 provinces). China exported $172m of these goods in 2025, +4% a year since 2019; 34% went to the EU-27 (+4% a year). From the EU side, China supplied 9% of the EU's imports of these goods from outside the EU in 2025 (-3 points since 2019). No EU countervailing case held on these goods.
Compliance and legal4 of 93 documents (4%) carry a provision or condition that favours local or Chinese firms or production, 4 naming foreign-owned firms as the ones disadvantaged. 0 sector measures come into force and 0 expire in the next 12 months.
Investors30 documents (32%) carry a fiscal or financial support measure. 0 firms are named on lists in these documents.
ResearchSector set: 88 documents whose title names the sector, plus 12 in its topic tree (93 together). Measures and preference are keyword and model screens: leads to check against the text. Momentum is relative to the corpus, which reduces but does not remove the effect of uneven collection.
Topic tree: seeds → Exposure check for this sector → Subsidy file (anti-subsidy headings) → Ask the evidence about this sector ↗ All sectors → Subscribe (Atom) JSON Print brief

Documents per year

CentralProvincialCityCounty
0510151314151617181920212223242526012

Documents held, so collection shapes the curve; the momentum ratio is relative to the corpus.

China's exports, USD bn

WorldEU-27US
$0$0.1bn$0.1bn$0.1bn$0.2bn2019202020212022202320242025World $0.2bnEU-27 $0.1bnUS $0.0bn
Headingworldgrowth/yrEU-27EU since 2023share of EU imports
Seeds for sowing 1209$172m4%$59m 15% 9%

Central → local: who restated the sector's central documents

DateCentral documentprovincesmedian lag
2023-08-31市场监管总局 农业农村部关于开展农作物种子认证工作的实施意见
Implementation Opinions of the State Administration for Market Regulation and the Ministry of Agriculture and…
国市监认证规〔2023〕5号
0none held trace →
2022-09-30农业农村部关于印发种业振兴行动部门工作协调机制工作制度的通知
Notice of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on the Issuance of the Working Regulations for the In…
农种发〔2022〕4号
0none held trace →
2022-01-28农业农村部 最高人民法院 最高人民检察院 工业和信息化部 公安部 市场监管总局 国家知识产权局关于保护种业知识产权打击假冒伪劣套牌侵权营造种业振兴…
Guidance from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Supreme People’s Court, the Supreme People’s…
农种发〔2022〕2号
0none held trace →
2022-01-05农业农村部办公厅关于公布调整后《进口种子种源免征增值税商品清单》(第一批)的通知
Notice from the General Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on the Publication of the Rev…
农办外〔2022〕1号
0none held trace →
2021-07-02农业农村部办公厅关于开展保护种业知识产权专项整治行动的通知
Notice from the General Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on Launching a Special Campai…
农办种〔2021〕4号
0none held trace →
2021-04-21关于“十四五”期间种子种源进口税收政策的通知
Notice on Tax Policies for the Import of Seeds and Seed Sources during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period
财关税〔2021〕29号
0none held trace →
2023-02-10农业农村部办公厅关于进一步做好机械化播种质量提升工作的通知
Notice from the General Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on Further Improving the Qual…
农办机〔2023〕1号
0none held trace →
2021-03-21农业农村部关于开展全国农业种质资源普查的通知
Notice from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on Conducting a National Survey of Agricultural Gen…
农种发〔2021〕1号
0none held trace →

Across all State Council directives the median lag to a province's implementing document is about 151 days (middle half 84–259).

Where in China

Provincedocuments (36 m)leanswith moneyfavouringlocal-only programmes
Sichuan6×3.211 8% of 451 exposure →
Hubei4×3.100 7% of 266 exposure →
Henan3×6.100 4% of 135 exposure →
Shandong2–10 4% of 169 exposure →
Shaanxi2–10 2% of 265 exposure →
Jilin2–00 4% of 116 exposure →
Anhui1–10 0% of 26 exposure →
Beijing1–10 13% of 100 exposure →
Jiangsu1–00 6% of 141 exposure →
Tibet1–00 0% of 97 exposure →
Guizhou1–00 1% of 209 exposure →
Gansu1–00 10% of 31 exposure →

Latest central documents

2023-08-31市场监管总局 农业农村部关于开展农作物种子认证工作的实施意见
Implementation Opinions of the State Administration for Market Regulation and the Ministry of Agriculture and…
国市监认证规〔2023〕5号
2023-02-10农业农村部办公厅关于进一步做好机械化播种质量提升工作的通知
Notice from the General Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on Further Improving the Qual…
农办机〔2023〕1号
2022-09-30农业农村部关于印发种业振兴行动部门工作协调机制工作制度的通知
Notice of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on the Issuance of the Working Regulations for the In…
农种发〔2022〕4号
2022-01-28农业农村部 最高人民法院 最高人民检察院 工业和信息化部 公安部 市场监管总局 国家知识产权局关于保护种业知识产权打击假冒伪劣套牌侵权营造…
Guidance from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Supreme People’s Court, the Supreme People’s…
农种发〔2022〕2号
2022-01-05农业农村部办公厅关于公布调整后《进口种子种源免征增值税商品清单》(第一批)的通知
Notice from the General Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on the Publication of the Rev…
农办外〔2022〕1号
2021-12-23国家林业和草原局办公室关于启用《林草种子生产经营许可证》的通知
Notice from the Office of the National Forestry and Grassland Administration on the Implementation of the ‘Fo…
办场字〔2021〕132号
2021-07-02农业农村部办公厅关于开展保护种业知识产权专项整治行动的通知
Notice from the General Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on Launching a Special Campai…
农办种〔2021〕4号
2021-04-21关于“十四五”期间种子种源进口税收政策的通知
Notice on Tax Policies for the Import of Seeds and Seed Sources during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period
财关税〔2021〕29号

Latest local documents

2026-08-25关于批准核发《农作物种子生产经营许可证》企业名单的公告
announcement · 内蒙古自治区农牧厅
2026-06-05洛阳市种业发展中心关于2026年度农产品质量安全监测项目(新申报绿色食品检测)废标公告
announcement · Luoyang Municipal People's Government
2026-06-05洛阳市种业发展中心2026年度农产品质量安全监测项目(新申报绿色食品检测)重新采购公告
announcement · Luoyang Municipal People's Government
2026-05-29种业管理处-山西省农业农村厅信息公开
Document · Shanxi Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs
2026-05-27洛阳市种业发展中心2026年度新申报绿色食品检测的采购公告
announcement · Luoyang Municipal People's Government
2026-05-15长江扬中河段二期(应急治理)工程镇江市境内工程环境保护技术服务2-3标--长江特色鱼类种质资源保护项目(刀鲚)(三次招标)招标公告
announcement · Jiangsu Provincial People's Government
2026-03-05吉林省2026年国家级延边黄牛核心育种场和南美种公牛站建设补助项目实施方案
implementation plan · Jilin Provincial People's Government
2026-02-06甘肃省农业农村厅关于批准合格农作物种子质量检验机构的公告
announcement · Gansu Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs
2026-02-04省农业农村厅关于湖北省仙桃市国家水产种质资源黄鳝活体保种场建设项目初步设计和投资概算的批复
reply · Hubei Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs
2026-01-28省农业农村厅关于仙桃市国家水产种质 资源黄鳝活体保种场建设项目可行性研究报告的批复
reply · Hubei Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs

Measures

MeasureGroupFoundchecked precision
Capital grantFiscal and financial support1970%
Tax reliefFiscal and financial support1580%
Import duty relief on inputsTrade and foreign investment4not checked
Purchase subsidyFiscal and financial support280%
Credit guaranteeFiscal and financial support190%
Usage privilegeUsage privileges1not checked

Precision from the Data page: samples of ten, checked by the AI assistant; a human-coded sample is still to come.

Money on the table

现代种业创新发展政策 2026-01-07 · Capital grant
组建“政、学、研、企、推”全链条育种攻关联合团队,合力培育突破性新品种10个以上,每个团队给予100万元资金支持。
安徽省人民政府关于公布一批省政府文件清理结果的决定 2025-09-13 · Tax relief
2.删除文件第五条“企业办的各类学校、托儿所、医院(包括门诊部、诊疗所)等自用的房产,免征房产税”。
按照绵阳市建立重点产业建圈强链“587”产业体系和《八条措施》要求,为做好2025年度市级种业发展专项资金扶持项目申报工 2025-08-01 · Capital grant
(1)2025年度市级种业发展专项资金种业“三品”工程奖补类项目申请目录(附件3)。
农业农村部办公厅关于公布调整后《进口种子种源免征增值税商品清单》(第一批)的通知 2022-01-05 · Tax relief
附件:第一批进口种子种源免征增值税商品清单(按10位商品编号)
关于“十四五”期间种子种源进口税收政策的通知 2021-04-21 · Tax relief
一、自2021年1月1日至2025年12月31日,对符合《进口种子种源免征增值税商品清单》的进口种子种源免征进口环节增值税。
福建省人民政府关于加快推进现代农作物种业发展的实施意见 2018-05-10 · Capital grant
2018—2020年,对于列入国家级“育繁推一体化”种子企业和省级重点种子企业的(省级重点种子企业认定办法由省农业厅、财政厅另行制定),省级财政每年给予100万元和50万元的补贴资金,扶持开展品种选育。

Rules that favour local or Chinese firms

ProvisionHowDisadvantages
“为贯彻落实习近平总书记关于推动科技创新和科技成果转化同时发力、抓紧培育具有自主知识产权的优良品种等重要指示精神以及省委、省政府重大决策部署,根据年度工作安排,现启动2025年省级农业科技成果转化专项和农作物及畜禽育种攻关绩效项目申报工作。” Ownership, own-brand or own-IP testforeign-owned firms
“开展优新品种与科技服务进村下田行动,通过示范引领、良种补贴等形式,加快自主知识产权成果转化应用,大力推广节水、优质、高产小麦,抗旱、节肥玉米以及优质、抗病等绿色高效农作物品种,增加农民生产效益。”
北京现代种业发展三年行动计划(2020—2022年) 京政农发〔2020〕24号 · 2020-03-13
Ownership, own-brand or own-IP testforeign-owned firms
“因此,要以优异种质资源为基础,以政策扶持为依托,以高新育种技术为先导,整合科技人才资源,实行生物育种与常规育种相结合,本地品种选育与引种相结合,强化种业科技原始创新、集成创新和区内外合作能力,加快培育具有自主知识产权的农牧种业科研新成果。”
关于加快推进现代农牧种业发展的意见 藏政办发〔2012〕88号 · 2012-07-14
Ownership, own-brand or own-IP testforeign-owned firms
“对品种的选引育繁、自主知识产权品牌的创建、种苗龙头企业的发展等,通过资金扶持、税收减免、信贷优惠等政策措施,逐步形成投入多元、利益共享的新机制。” Ownership, own-brand or own-IP testforeign-owned firms

Keyword and model screens: leads to check against the document, not findings. Newest first, one per document.

Coming into force (12 months)

No in-force date in the next 12 months.

Expiring (12 months)

No end date in the next 12 months.

Firms named most often

FirmOwnershipListings
No firm lists in these documents.

Listed groups: reported government grants

No listed group in this sector with HKEX grants extracted.

How this sector is defined

88 documents whose title matches 种业|种子|育种|种质, plus 12 in the topic tree seeds; 93 together. Goods: HS 1209. Measures and preference provisions are screen output; open each document for the clause.