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外 Waitan Ludi Policy Terminal China industrial-policy monitor · updated 2026-10-25

Sector radar / Shipbuilding

Shipbuilding rank 14 of 16 (range 6–15 under random weights) · evidence thin · set precision 9/10

Sector brief: what Chinese policy is doing in this sector, how it treats foreign firms, who is named, and what China sells abroad. Every figure links to its documents. Goods: Cruise ships, cargo ships and tankers (8901).

Policy momentum -1.16Provincial spread -1.62Money -0.89Local preference -1.02Substitution +1.51Export growth +0.23Exports to EU, growth +0.19EU share -1.09Export / import +1.47EU dependence -0.38
3
Documents, last 24 months
momentum 0.43× · central 1, provincial 2, city 0
1
Provinces active (36 m)
Shanghai
3
Documents with money measures
14% of 22
0
Local-preference documents
0% · 0 name foreign-owned firms
$47.3bn
China's exports, 2025
20% a year since 2019
10%
to the EU-27
$4.6bn · 21% a year
25%
China's share of EU imports, 2025
2 points since 2019 · €3bn
165.6×
Exports per $ imported
imports $286m
0 / 0
Start / end in 12 months
EU countervailing cases held: 0

Next five years: named in 6 of the 15 15th Five-Year Plan outlines held (1.2 mentions per 100k characters), against 2 of 7 14th-plan outlines (1.1): 1.1× as dense; up in 2 and down in 0 of the 4 places with both. Anhui: “大力发展工程机械、工业母机、仪器仪表、航空制造、电力装备、船舶与海洋工程装备、物流设备等高端整体装备、成套装备,加快新型装备研发制造应用。” (outline) Plan watch.

Reading, by audience

Risk and trade policyPolicy output on shipbuilding is slowing relative to the rest of the corpus (3 documents in 24 months, in 1 provinces). China exported $47.3bn of these goods in 2025, +20% a year since 2019; 10% went to the EU-27 (+21% a year). Exports to the EU peaked in 2024 ($5.5bn) and are -17% since, while exports to the world are +18%: the EU share is falling as sales go elsewhere. From the EU side, China supplied 25% of the EU's imports of these goods from outside the EU in 2025 (+2 points since 2019). No EU countervailing case held on these goods.
Compliance and legal0 of 22 documents (0%) carry a provision or condition that favours local or Chinese firms or production. 0 sector measures come into force and 0 expire in the next 12 months.
Investors3 documents (14%) carry a fiscal or financial support measure. 0 firms are named on lists in these documents.
ResearchSector set: 22 documents whose title names the sector, plus 3 in its topic tree (22 together). Measures and preference are keyword and model screens: leads to check against the text. Momentum is relative to the corpus, which reduces but does not remove the effect of uneven collection.
Topic tree: shipbuilding → Exposure check for this sector → Subsidy file (anti-subsidy headings) → Ask the evidence about this sector ↗ All sectors → Subscribe (Atom) JSON Print brief

Documents per year

CentralProvincialCityCounty
0123131415161718192021222324252622

Documents held, so collection shapes the curve; the momentum ratio is relative to the corpus.

China's exports, USD bn

WorldEU-27US
$0$10bn$20bn$30bn$40bn$50bn2019202020212022202320242025World $47bnEU-27 $4.6bnUS $0.0bn
Headingworldgrowth/yrEU-27EU since 2023share of EU imports
Cargo ships and tankers 8901$47.3bn20%$4.6bn 132% 25%

EU price and volume: imports from China €38.50/kg against €466.49/kg from other suppliers in 2025 (-92%; -95% in 2023). Volume since 2023: China 89%, others 72%.

Central → local: who restated the sector's central documents

DateCentral documentprovincesmedian lag
2023-12-26五部委关于印发船舶制造业绿色发展行动纲要(2024—2030年)的通知
Notice from Five Ministries on the Issuance of the Action Plan for Green Development in the Shipbuilding Indu…
工信部联重装〔2023〕254号
0none held trace →
2026-09-29交通运输部 工业和信息化部 国家能源局关于印发《内河新能源船舶推广应用行动方案(2026—2030年)》的通知
Notice from the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National E…
交水发〔2026〕127号
042 d old trace →

Across all State Council directives the median lag to a province's implementing document is about 151 days (middle half 84–259).

Where in China

Provincedocuments (36 m)leanswith moneyfavouringlocal-only programmes
Shanghai2–00 15% of 620 exposure →

Latest central documents

2026-09-29交通运输部 工业和信息化部 国家能源局关于印发《内河新能源船舶推广应用行动方案(2026—2030年)》的通知
Notice from the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National E…
交水发〔2026〕127号
2023-12-26五部委关于印发船舶制造业绿色发展行动纲要(2024—2030年)的通知
Notice from Five Ministries on the Issuance of the Action Plan for Green Development in the Shipbuilding Indu…
工信部联重装〔2023〕254号
2013-07-31国务院关于印发船舶工业加快结构调整促进转型升级实施方案(2013-2015年)的通知
Notice of the State Council on Issuing the Implementation Plan for Accelerating Structural Adjustment and Pro…
国发〔2013〕29号
2009-06-09船舶工业调整和振兴规划
Plan for the Restructuring and Revitalisation of the Shipbuilding Industry

Latest local documents

2026-01-24上海市人民政府关于同意《上海崇明江南造船(集团)有限责任公司“9·4”较大中毒和窒息事故调查报告》的批复
reply · Shanghai Municipal People's Government
2025-06-17上海市人民政府办公厅关于印发《上海市建设长兴岛世界级现代化造船基地的实施方案(2025-2027年)》的通知
notice issuing an implementation plan · Shanghai Municipal People's Government
2023-11-03关于印发《上海船舶与海洋工程装备产业高质量发展行动计划(2023-2025年)》的通知
Notice on the Issuance of the ‘Action Plan for the High-Quality Development of Shanghai’s Shipbuilding and Of…
Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Information Technology
2023-11-03关于印发《上海船舶与海洋工程装备产业高质量发展行动计划(2023-2025年)》的通知
notice issuing an action plan · 上海市经济信息化委
2022-08-31福建省人民政府关于同意启用福州港口岸闽江口内港区福建省马尾造船股份有限公司2#泊位的通知
notice · Fujian Provincial People's Government
2021-08-17关于印发福建省推进船舶和海洋工程装备高质量发展工作方案(2021—2023年)的通知
Notice on the Issuance of the Work Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Shipbuilding and Offsho…
Fujian Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology
2014-09-15福建省人民政府关于同意福建省翔宇造船有限公司海域使用申请的批复
reply · Fujian Provincial People's Government
2014-04-17福建省人民政府关于同意福建信昌造船有限责任公司海域使用申请的批复
reply · Fujian Provincial People's Government
2013-01-04福建省人民政府关于促进船舶工业转型升级十一条措施的通知
Notice of the People’s Government of Fujian Province on Eleven Measures to Promote the Transformation and Upg…
Fujian Provincial People's Government
2012-12-26福建省人民政府关于同意福建省冠海造船工业有限公司海域使用申请的批复
reply · Fujian Provincial People's Government

Measures

MeasureGroupFoundchecked precision
Capital grantFiscal and financial support370%
First-of-a-kind supportFiscal and financial support1100%
Tax reliefFiscal and financial support180%
Interest subsidyFiscal and financial support190%

Precision from the Data page: samples of ten, checked by the AI assistant; a human-coded sample is still to come.

Money on the table

关于印发福建省推进船舶和海洋工程装备高质量发展工作方案(2021—2023年)的通知 2021-08-17 · Capital grant
2.支持符合要求的高技术船舶和深海养殖装备申报省首台(套)重大技术装备认定和国家首台(套)重大技术装备保险补偿项目,按相应政策对装备生产企业和应用企业给予补助。
福建省人民政府关于促进船舶工业转型升级十一条措施的通知 2013-01-04 · Capital grant
列入省“百项千亿”重点技术改造计划的项目,享受省重点项目相关政策,按项目银行贷款实际发生额的5%给予贴息,其中以技术设备投资为主的项目可按技术设备投资额的5%予以补助,单个项目最高不超过500万元。

Rules that favour local or Chinese firms

No favouring provisions screened.

Coming into force (12 months)

No in-force date in the next 12 months.

Expiring (12 months)

No end date in the next 12 months.

Firms named most often

FirmOwnershipListings
No firm lists in these documents.

Listed groups: reported government grants

No listed group in this sector with HKEX grants extracted.

How this sector is defined

22 documents whose title matches 船舶(?:工业|制造|产业|建造|配套|与海洋工程|和海洋工程)|造船|修造船|海洋工程装备|海工装备|(?:绿色|智能|新能源|电动)船舶, plus 3 in the topic tree shipbuilding; 22 together. Goods: HS 8901. Measures and preference provisions are screen output; open each document for the clause.