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外 Waitan Ludi Policy Terminal China industrial-policy monitor · updated 2026-10-25

Sector radar / Drones and low-altitude

Drones and low-altitude rank 3 of 16 (range 3–6 under random weights) · evidence strong · set precision 9/10

Sector brief: what Chinese policy is doing in this sector, how it treats foreign firms, who is named, and what China sells abroad. Every figure links to its documents. Goods: Unmanned aircraft (8806, HS 2022 heading).

Policy momentum +0.63Provincial spread +0.91Money -0.36Local preference -0.14Substitution -0.07Export growth +0.21Exports to EU, growth +0.21EU share +0.62Export / import +0.67EU dependence +1.13
53
Documents, last 24 months
momentum 1.27× · central 4, provincial 35, city 14
23
Provinces active (36 m)
Beijing, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Shanghai …
20
Documents with money measures
23% of 86
3
Local-preference documents
3% · 1 name foreign-owned firms
$3.1bn
China's exports, 2025
20% a year since 2022
31%
to the EU-27
$953m · 21% a year
76%
China's share of EU imports, 2025
-7 points since 2022 · €1bn
23.6×
Exports per $ imported
imports $132m
0 / 4
Start / end in 12 months
EU countervailing cases held: 0

Next five years: named in 14 of the 15 15th Five-Year Plan outlines held (38.7 mentions per 100k characters), against 5 of 7 14th-plan outlines (1.4): 27.7× as dense; up in 4 and down in 0 of the 4 places with both. Fancheng (Xiangyang): “培育壮大低空经济、数字经济等新兴产业,构建以创新策源、标准引领、品牌提升为特征的先进制造业体系。” (outline) Plan watch.

Reading, by audience

Risk and trade policyPolicy output on drones and low-altitude is accelerating relative to the rest of the corpus (53 documents in 24 months, in 23 provinces). China exported $3.1bn of these goods in 2025, +20% a year since 2022; 31% went to the EU-27 (+21% a year). From the EU side, China supplied 76% of the EU's imports of these goods from outside the EU in 2025 (-7 points since 2022). In the EU, the gap between the unit value of imports from China and other suppliers' widened from -29% in 2023 to -70% in 2025, while China's volume changed +96% against -20% for the rest: a pointer to price pressure (unit values mix qualities), not a measure of undercutting. No EU countervailing case held on these goods.
Compliance and legal3 of 86 documents (3%) carry a provision or condition that favours local or Chinese firms or production, 1 naming foreign-owned firms as the ones disadvantaged. 0 sector measures come into force and 4 expire in the next 12 months.
Investors20 documents (23%) carry a fiscal or financial support measure. 0 firms are named on lists in these documents.
ResearchSector set: 55 documents whose title names the sector, plus 47 in its topic tree (86 together). Measures and preference are keyword and model screens: leads to check against the text. Momentum is relative to the corpus, which reduces but does not remove the effect of uneven collection.
Topic tree: drones →Topic tree: lowalt → Exposure check for this sector → Subsidy file (anti-subsidy headings) → Ask the evidence about this sector ↗ All sectors → Subscribe (Atom) JSON Print brief

Documents per year

CentralProvincialCityCounty
01020301314151617181920212223242526022

Documents held, so collection shapes the curve; the momentum ratio is relative to the corpus.

China's exports, USD bn

WorldEU-27US
$0$1.0bn$2.0bn$3.0bn$4.0bn2022202320242025World $3.1bnEU-27 $1.0bnUS $0.2bn
Headingworldgrowth/yrEU-27EU since 2023share of EU imports
Unmanned aircraft 8806$3.1bn20%$953m 50% 76%

EU price and volume: imports from China €326.35/kg against €1074.74/kg from other suppliers in 2025 (-70%; -29% in 2023). Volume since 2023: China 96%, others -20%.

Central → local: who restated the sector's central documents

DateCentral documentprovincesmedian lag
2023-05-31无人驾驶航空器飞行管理暂行条例
Interim Regulations on the Management of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Operations
国务院令第761号
19795 d trace →
2025-10-09不可靠实体清单工作机制关于将反无人机技术公司等外国实体列入不可靠实体清单的公告
Announcement by the Working Mechanism for the Unreliable Entities List Regarding the Inclusion of Foreign Ent…
0none held trace →
2024-07-31商务部 海关总署 中央军委装备发展部公告2024年第31号 关于优化调整无人机出口管制措施的公告
Announcement No. 31 of 2024 by the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs and the Equipm…
商务部公告2024年第31号
0none held trace →
2023-07-31商务部 海关总署 国家国防科工局 中央军委装备发展部公告2023年第28号 关于对部分无人机实施临时出口管制的公告
Announcement No. 28 of 2023 by the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, the State Adm…
商务部公告2023年第28号
0none held trace →
2023-07-31商务部 海关总署 国家国防科工局 中央军委装备发展部公告2023年第27号 关于对无人机相关物项实施出口管制的公告
Announcement No. 27 of 2023 by the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, the State Adm…
商务部公告2023年第27号
0none held trace →
2025-12-11市场监管总局等部门关于印发《低空经济标准体系建设指南(2025年版)》的通知
Notice from the State Administration for Market Regulation and Other Departments on the Issuance of the ‘Guid…
0none held trace →
2025-12-22国家发展改革委关于印发《低空经济及其核心产业统计分类(试行)》的通知
Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on the Issuance of the ‘Statistical Classification o…
发改低空〔2025〕1676号
0none held trace →
2025-07-22关于温州低空经济发展有限公司副总经理公开选聘调整报名条件的公告 0none held trace →

Across all State Council directives the median lag to a province's implementing document is about 151 days (middle half 84–259).

Where in China

Provincedocuments (36 m)leanswith moneyfavouringlocal-only programmes
Shanghai11×1.440 15% of 620 exposure →
Sichuan6×1.430 8% of 451 exposure →
Yunnan6×6.230 3% of 96 exposure →
Shaanxi5×2.710 2% of 265 exposure →
Zhejiang4×1.221 3% of 417 exposure →
Inner Mongolia4×1.120 1% of 154 exposure →
Guangdong3×0.200 0% of 67 exposure →
Beijing3×0.801 13% of 100 exposure →
Tibet3×7.110 0% of 97 exposure →
Guangxi2–00 0% of 34 exposure →
Chongqing2–10 0% of 67 exposure →
Heilongjiang2–20 7% of 15 exposure →

Latest central documents

2025-12-22国家发展改革委关于印发《低空经济及其核心产业统计分类(试行)》的通知
Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on the Issuance of the ‘Statistical Classification o…
发改低空〔2025〕1676号
2025-12-11市场监管总局等部门关于印发《低空经济标准体系建设指南(2025年版)》的通知
Notice from the State Administration for Market Regulation and Other Departments on the Issuance of the ‘Guid…
2025-10-09不可靠实体清单工作机制关于将反无人机技术公司等外国实体列入不可靠实体清单的公告
Announcement by the Working Mechanism for the Unreliable Entities List Regarding the Inclusion of Foreign Ent…
2025-07-22关于温州低空经济发展有限公司副总经理公开选聘调整报名条件的公告
announcement · 人力资源部
2024-07-31商务部 海关总署 中央军委装备发展部公告2024年第31号 关于优化调整无人机出口管制措施的公告
Announcement No. 31 of 2024 by the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs and the Equipm…
商务部公告2024年第31号
2023-07-31商务部 海关总署 国家国防科工局 中央军委装备发展部公告2023年第28号 关于对部分无人机实施临时出口管制的公告
Announcement No. 28 of 2023 by the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, the State Adm…
商务部公告2023年第28号
2023-07-31商务部 海关总署 国家国防科工局 中央军委装备发展部公告2023年第27号 关于对无人机相关物项实施出口管制的公告
Announcement No. 27 of 2023 by the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, the State Adm…
商务部公告2023年第27号
2023-05-31无人驾驶航空器飞行管理暂行条例
Interim Regulations on the Management of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Operations
国务院令第761号

Latest local documents

2026-09-10福建省发展和改革委员会关于印发福建省支持民营企业投资低空、能源领域基础设施工作导则(试行)的通知
Notice of the Fujian Provincial Development and Reform Commission on the Issuance of the Guidelines for Fujia…
Fujian Provincial Development and Reform Commission
2026-08-17关于公开比选《西藏自治区低空目视1号 通道试飞性验证测试》承接单位的公告
announcement · 西藏自治区航空事业发展处
2026-07-31西安市人民政府关于公布微型、轻型、小型无人驾驶航空器适飞空域范围的通告
circular · Xi'an Municipal People's Government
2026-07-30云南省司法厅关于《云南省低空经济促进条例(草案)》公开征求意见的公告
announcement · Yunnan Provincial Department of Justice
2026-06-16云南省人民政府办公厅关于印发《云南省有序拓展低空经济 应用场景实施方案》的通知
Notice from the General Office of the People’s Government of Yunnan Province on the Issuance of the ‘Implemen…
Yunnan Provincial People's Government
2026-06-15昆明市人民政府关于更新公布市域微型、轻型、小型无人驾驶航空器适飞空域范围的通告
circular · General Office of the Kunming Municipal People's Government
2026-06-08云南省人民政府办公厅关于印发《云南省有序拓展低空经济应用场景实施方案》的通知
Notice from the General Office of the People’s Government of Yunnan Province on the Issuance of the ‘Implemen…
Yunnan Provincial People's Government
2026-06-05陕西省发展和改革委员会关于征集低空经济应用场景供给和需求清单的通知
notice · Shaanxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission
2026-05-25安徽省人民政府办公厅关于印发《安徽省“低空+”应用场景拓展工程行动方案(2026—2028年)》的通知
notice issuing an action plan · General Office of the Anhui Provincial People's Government
2026-05-18绵阳市人民政府办公室关于印发《绵阳南郊机场净空及电磁环境保护实施办法(修订稿)》的通知
notice issuing implementing measures · General Office of the Mianyang Municipal People's Government

Measures

MeasureGroupFoundchecked precision
Capital grantFiscal and financial support1570%
Operating subsidyFiscal and financial support5not checked
Tax reliefFiscal and financial support480%
Interest subsidyFiscal and financial support490%
Purchase subsidyFiscal and financial support380%
Guidance fund / state equityFiscal and financial support350%
Local registration conditionLocalisation conditions160%
Trade-in / scrappage subsidyFiscal and financial support150%
Policy lendingFiscal and financial support1not checked

Precision from the Data page: samples of ten, checked by the AI assistant; a human-coded sample is still to come.

Money on the table

关于印发《2025-2026年度虹桥国际中央商务区关于支持低空经济高质量发展专项资金申报指南》的通知 2026-01-07 · Capital grant
对年度营业收入5000万元(含)以上且正增长的低空经济单位,根据其年度营业收入给予每年最高不超过200万元人民币的业务规模奖励,具体奖励标准如下:
重庆市人民政府办公厅关于印发《重庆市推动低空经济高质量发展若干政策措施》的通知 2025-11-22 · Capital grant
支持建设航空器试飞测试基地,对投资额超过500万元的,按不超过投资额的20%给予支持、最高不超过500万元,用于支持开展各类低空飞行器以及关键零部件的科学试验、科研试飞、演示验证等,全力保障低空运营、研发、生产制造企业的试飞测试需求。
关于印发《虹桥国际中央商务区关于低空经济高质量发展的支持政策》的通知 2025-09-19 · Operating subsidy
对开展数字化转型、营商环境优化、公共研发平台、产业生态建设等公共服务品质提升的主题产业园区,按照实际建设投入的50%,给予每年最高不超过500万元的运营补贴。
关于组织2025年度第四批民用无人机驾驶执照培训的通知 2025-09-15 · Tax relief
3.培训一旦开班,费用不予退还,学员可凭缴费记录及发票在两年时间内参与任意一期培训班。
云南省人民政府办公厅关于印发《云南省支持低空经济健康发展的若干措施》的通知 2025-08-03 · Trade-in / scrappage subsidy
安全有序推进载人飞行等低空文旅消费活动,每年发放消费券2000万元,支持高空跳伞、低空观光、无人机表演、飞行体验等低空消费活动。
关于印发《嘉定区支持低空经济高质量发展的若干政策(试行)》的通知 2025-07-02 · Capital grant
经认定,相关企业(项目)在低空经济产业上发挥强链补链效应,按实缴注册资本的3%给予不超过500万元的一次性奖励。

Rules that favour local or Chinese firms

ProvisionHowDisadvantages
“所有者为法人及其他组织(以下简称“单位”)的,应当为在本市注册登记的单位。” Local registration / taxother regions
“第5页“(十一)支持基础设施建设”,建议将“积极盘活存量资源,支持社会资本参与低空基础设施建设与运营,引导符合条件的项目依法合规采用特许经营模式推进”修改为“积极盘活存量资源,支持国企带动、社会参与,推进低空基础设施建设与运营共享,引导符合条件的项目依法合规采用特许经营模式推进。” SOE or private-firm preferenceprivate firms
“二十四、充分发挥我省产业投资引导基金作用,吸引社会资本、产业资本和金融资本融入,研究设立吉林省通用航空产业子基金,用于支持通用航空示范工程、重点通用机场项目建设、通用航空企业运营、短途运输航线补贴、通用航空制造业发展及通用航空人才培养等,并将新型通用航空制造产业重大共性、关键性技术的研发攻关和拥有…”
吉林省人民政府公报 吉政办发〔2019〕1号 · 2019-01-01
Ownership, own-brand or own-IP testforeign-owned firms

Keyword and model screens: leads to check against the document, not findings. Newest first, one per document.

Coming into force (12 months)

No in-force date in the next 12 months.

Expiring (12 months)

Firms named most often

FirmOwnershipListings
No firm lists in these documents.

Listed groups: reported government grants

No listed group in this sector with HKEX grants extracted.

How this sector is defined

55 documents whose title matches 无人机|低空, plus 47 in the topic trees drones, lowalt; 86 together. Goods: HS 8806. Measures and preference provisions are screen output; open each document for the clause.