LATEST
外 Waitan Ludi Policy Terminal China industrial-policy monitor · updated 2026-10-25

Sector radar / Solar PV

Solar PV rank 10 of 16 (range 5–14 under random weights) · evidence strong · set precision 10/10

Sector brief: what Chinese policy is doing in this sector, how it treats foreign firms, who is named, and what China sells abroad. Every figure links to its documents. Goods: PV cells and modules (8541.42/43, HS 2022 codes).

Policy momentum +0.58Provincial spread +0.56Money -0.60Local preference -0.10Substitution -1.26Export growth -1.12Exports to EU, growth -1.88EU share +0.68Export / import +1.06EU dependence +1.79
80
Documents, last 24 months
momentum 1.23× · central 1, provincial 41, city 38
20
Provinces active (36 m)
Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Heilongjiang …
31
Documents with money measures
19% of 164
6
Local-preference documents
4% · 5 name foreign-owned firms
$28.2bn
China's exports, 2025
-15% a year since 2022
31%
to the EU-27
$8.8bn · -27% a year
98%
China's share of EU imports, 2025
2 points since 2022 · €8bn
61.1×
Exports per $ imported
imports $461m
0 / 3
Start / end in 12 months
EU countervailing cases held: 0

EU target: Net-Zero Industry Act, Regulation (EU) 2024/1735: solar PV is a strategic net-zero technology; benchmark: EU manufacturing to meet at least 40% of annual deployment needs by 2030. China supplies 98% of the EU's imports of these goods from outside the EU (2025; imports, not consumption).

Next five years: named in 15 of the 15 15th Five-Year Plan outlines held (9.8 mentions per 100k characters), against 5 of 7 14th-plan outlines (5.9): 1.7× as dense; up in 4 and down in 0 of the 4 places with both. Ordos: “筑牢库布其沙漠绿化带、淤地坝、光伏治沙带、沙漠锁边林草带“四道防线”,实现库布其沙漠需治尽治。” (outline) Plan watch.

Reading, by audience

Risk and trade policyPolicy output on solar PV is accelerating relative to the rest of the corpus (80 documents in 24 months, in 20 provinces). China exported $28.2bn of these goods in 2025, -15% a year since 2022; 31% went to the EU-27 (-27% a year). Exports to the EU peaked in 2022 ($23.0bn) and are -62% since, while exports to the world are -39%. From the EU side, China supplied 98% of the EU's imports of these goods from outside the EU in 2025 (+2 points since 2022). In the EU, the gap between the unit value of imports from China and other suppliers' widened from -18% in 2023 to -59% in 2025, while China's volume changed -2% against -68% for the rest: a pointer to price pressure (unit values mix qualities), not a measure of undercutting. No EU countervailing case held on these goods.
Compliance and legal6 of 164 documents (4%) carry a provision or condition that favours local or Chinese firms or production, 5 naming foreign-owned firms as the ones disadvantaged. 0 sector measures come into force and 3 expire in the next 12 months.
Investors31 documents (19%) carry a fiscal or financial support measure. 1067 firms are named on lists in these documents, 6 of them foreign-owned or joint ventures.
ResearchSector set: 155 documents whose title names the sector, plus 31 in its topic tree (164 together). Measures and preference are keyword and model screens: leads to check against the text. Momentum is relative to the corpus, which reduces but does not remove the effect of uneven collection.
Topic tree: pv → Exposure check for this sector → Subsidy file (anti-subsidy headings) → Ask the evidence about this sector ↗ All sectors → Subscribe (Atom) JSON Print brief

Documents per year

CentralProvincialCityCounty
02040601314151617181920212223242526444

Documents held, so collection shapes the curve; the momentum ratio is relative to the corpus.

China's exports, USD bn

WorldEU-27US
$0$10bn$20bn$30bn$40bn$50bn2022202320242025World $28bnEU-27 $8.8bnUS $0.2bn
Headingworldgrowth/yrEU-27EU since 2023share of EU imports
PV cells, not in modules 854142$4.5bn4%$75m -60% 78%
PV modules and panels 854143$23.7bn-18%$8.8bn -54% 99%

EU price and volume: imports from China €1.78/kg against €4.30/kg from other suppliers in 2025 (-59%; -18% in 2023). Volume since 2023: China -2%, others -68%.

Central → local: who restated the sector's central documents

DateCentral documentprovincesmedian lag
2022-11-30国家能源局关于印发《光伏电站开发建设管理办法》的通知
Notice from the National Energy Administration on the Issuance of the ‘Administrative Measures for the Develo…
新能规〔2022〕104号
10972 d trace →
2025-01-17国家能源局关于印发《分布式光伏发电开发建设管理办法》的通知
Notice from the National Energy Administration on the Issuance of the ‘Administrative Measures for the Develo…
新能规〔2025〕7号
9206 d trace →
2021-05-11国家能源局关于2021年风电、光伏发电开发建设有关事项的通知
Notice from the National Energy Administration on Matters Relating to the Development and Construction of Win…
国能发新能〔2021〕25号
21540 d trace →
2021-12-31五部门关于印发《智能光伏产业创新发展行动计划(2021-2025年)》的通知
Notice from Five Ministries on the Issuance of the ‘Action Plan for the Innovative Development of the Smart P…
工信部联电子〔2021〕226号
1319 d trace →
2022-11-08五部门关于开展第三批智能光伏试点示范活动的通知
Notice from Five Departments on the Launch of the Third Batch of Smart Photovoltaic Pilot and Demonstration P…
工信厅联电子函〔2022〕295号
17 d trace →
2023-03-20关于支持光伏发电产业发展规范用地管理有关工作的通知
Notice on Matters Relating to the Standardisation of Land Use Management to Support the Development of the Ph…
自然资办发〔2023〕12号
11085 d trace →
2023-11-10五部门关于开展第四批智能光伏试点示范活动的通知
Notice from Five Departments on the Launch of the Fourth Batch of Smart Photovoltaic Pilot and Demonstration …
工信厅联电子函〔2023〕306号
112 d trace →
2021-02-09六部门关于开展第二批智能光伏试点示范的通知
Notice from Six Departments on the Launch of the Second Batch of Smart Photovoltaic Pilot and Demonstration P…
工信厅联电子〔2021〕32号
0none held trace →

Across all State Council directives the median lag to a province's implementing document is about 151 days (middle half 84–259).

Where in China

Provincedocuments (36 m)leanswith moneyfavouringlocal-only programmes
Guangdong31×1.410 0% of 67 exposure →
Inner Mongolia13×2.410 1% of 154 exposure →
Shanghai11×1.030 15% of 620 exposure →
Henan8×4.700 4% of 135 exposure →
Sichuan5×0.800 8% of 451 exposure →
Fujian4×1.100 2% of 199 exposure →
Guizhou4×2.000 1% of 209 exposure →
Hubei3×0.700 7% of 266 exposure →
Shandong2–00 4% of 169 exposure →
Shanxi2–00 0% of 44 exposure →
Shaanxi2–00 2% of 265 exposure →
Chongqing1–00 0% of 67 exposure →

Latest central documents

2025-01-17国家能源局关于印发《分布式光伏发电开发建设管理办法》的通知
Notice from the National Energy Administration on the Issuance of the ‘Administrative Measures for the Develo…
新能规〔2025〕7号
2024-08-24工业和信息化部办公厅关于印发光伏产业标准体系建设指南(2024版)的通知
Notice from the General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on the Issuance of the …
工信厅科〔2024〕50号
2024-05-17国家能源局综合司 国家林业和草原局办公室关于有序推进光伏治沙项目开发建设有关事项的通知
Notice from the General Department of the National Energy Administration and the General Office of the Nation…
国能综通新能〔2024〕82号
2023-11-10五部门关于开展第四批智能光伏试点示范活动的通知
Notice from Five Departments on the Launch of the Fourth Batch of Smart Photovoltaic Pilot and Demonstration …
工信厅联电子函〔2023〕306号
2023-07-21国家发展改革委等部门关于促进退役风电、光伏设备循环利用的指导意见
Guidance from the National Development and Reform Commission and Other Departments on Promoting the Recycling…
发改环资〔2023〕1030号
2023-03-20关于支持光伏发电产业发展规范用地管理有关工作的通知
Notice on Matters Relating to the Standardisation of Land Use Management to Support the Development of the Ph…
自然资办发〔2023〕12号
2022-11-30国家能源局关于印发《光伏电站开发建设管理办法》的通知
Notice from the National Energy Administration on the Issuance of the ‘Administrative Measures for the Develo…
新能规〔2022〕104号
2022-11-08五部门关于开展第三批智能光伏试点示范活动的通知
Notice from Five Departments on the Launch of the Third Batch of Smart Photovoltaic Pilot and Demonstration P…
工信厅联电子函〔2022〕295号

Latest local documents

2026-09-24关于审慎开展光伏项目建设的提醒函
letter · 惠东县发展改革和政务数据局
2026-09-10关于同意望牛墩镇居民分布式光伏项目备案的复函
letter · 东莞市望牛墩镇人民政府
2026-09-07广东省生态环境厅关于同意梅州粤海水务有限公司新城水厂等两个分布式光伏发电碳普惠项目核证减排量备案的通知
notice · Guangdong Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment
2026-09-05广东省生态环境厅关于同意惠州市顺利包装制品有限公司970KW分布光伏发电碳普惠项目核证减排量备案的通知
notice · Guangdong Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment
2026-09-01广东省生态环境厅关于同意广东金鹿陶瓷实业有限公司屋顶分布式光伏发电等12个碳普惠项目核证减排量备案的通知
notice · Guangdong Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment
2026-08-27关于同意望牛墩镇居民分布式光伏项目备案的复函
letter · 东莞市望牛墩镇人民政府
2026-08-24关于发布郑州市2026年第三季度分布式光伏承载力评估等级结果的公告
announcement · Zhengzhou Municipal Development and Reform Commission
2026-08-21漳州市人民政府关于中节能漳浦旧镇300MW渔光互补光伏电站项目海域使用权变更的批复
reply · Zhangzhou Municipal People's Government
2026-08-18光伏并网逆变器等9种产品质量监督抽查实施细则
detailed implementing rules · Shaanxi Provincial Administration for Market Regulation
2026-08-07龙门产投定制厂房光伏项目施工招标失败公告
announcement · 惠州市公共资源交易中心龙门分中心

Measures

MeasureGroupFoundchecked precision
Feed-in tariff / power price subsidyFiscal and financial support18not checked
Capital grantFiscal and financial support1670%
Tax reliefFiscal and financial support380%
Guidance fund / state equityFiscal and financial support250%
Interest subsidyFiscal and financial support290%
Electricity price concessionFiscal and financial support2not checked
Purchase subsidyFiscal and financial support180%
Operating subsidyFiscal and financial support1not checked
Local content conditionLocalisation conditions130%

Precision from the Data page: samples of ten, checked by the AI assistant; a human-coded sample is still to come.

Money on the table

内蒙古自治区能源局关于做好2026年内蒙古电力多边交易市场中长期交易有关事宜的通知 2025-12-30 · Electricity price concession
电力用户:加快推动工商业用户全面参与市场,逐步缩小电网代理购电规模,除居民(含执行居民电价的学校、社会福利机构、社区服务中心等公益性事业用户)、农业用电之外,10千伏及以上全部工商业用户(含限制类)原则上要直接参与市场交易;
关于开展2025年虹口区分布式光伏发电项目补贴申报工作的通知 2025-07-07 · Capital grant
对纳入本区分布式光伏发电规模管理,完成并网验收并运行的光伏发电项目,经认定,按并网规模及发电量规模给予项目投资主体最高1200元/千瓦补贴;
关于组织开展浦东新区2024年第二批光伏发电专项资金项目申报的通知 2024-10-17 · Capital grant
在申报范围内的项目,按照装机容量给予补贴,补贴0.35元/瓦(光伏建筑一体化应用(光伏组件作为建筑构件)的项目,补贴标准为0.95元/瓦),单个项目最高不超过500万元。
关于印发《杨浦区光伏发展扶持办法》的通知 2023-07-21 · Feed-in tariff / power price subsidy
(二)对光伏建筑一体化项目,根据实际产生的发电量对项目投资主体给予度电奖励,奖励期5年。
云南省发展和改革委员会 云南省工业和信息化厅关于印发光伏产业发展三年行动及配套政策措施的通知 2022-08-15 · Tax relief
充分释放国家将绿色硅产业列入《西部地区鼓励类产业目录(2020年本)》云南省新增鼓励类产业的政策红利,高质量落实西部大开发鼓励类产业企业和高新技术企业所得税优惠、研发费用税前加计扣除、先进制造业增值税期末留抵退税等产业发展税收优惠政策,避免对符合条件的绿色硅光伏项目拒贷、抽贷、断贷。
南平市人民政府办公室关于印发《支持南平市光伏产业发展十条措施(试行)》的通知 2022-07-28 · Purchase subsidy
对项目设备投资额达1亿元以上的光伏制造项目设备予以10%的设备购置补贴(含省级技术改造项目设备投资补助,按项目设备投资额不超过5%的比例给予补助,

Rules that favour local or Chinese firms

ProvisionHowDisadvantages
“三、申报主体所申报的项目需拥有自主知识产权,对提供资料的真实性负责。”
五部门关于开展第四批智能光伏试点示范活动的通知 工信厅联电子函〔2023〕306号 · 2023-11-10
Ownership, own-brand or own-IP testforeign-owned firms
“三、申报主体所申报的项目需拥有自主知识产权,对提供资料的真实性负责。”
五部门关于开展第三批智能光伏试点示范活动的通知 工信厅联电子函〔2022〕295号 · 2022-11-08
Ownership, own-brand or own-IP testforeign-owned firms
“三、申报主体所申报的项目需拥有自主知识产权,对提供资料的真实性负责。”
六部门关于开展第二批智能光伏试点示范的通知 工信厅联电子〔2021〕32号 · 2021-02-09
Ownership, own-brand or own-IP testforeign-owned firms
“三、申报主体所申报的项目需拥有自主知识产权,对提供资料的真实性负责。” Ownership, own-brand or own-IP testforeign-owned firms
“支持相关区县和重点开发区加大对掌握关键技术和自主知识产权的国内外光伏核心装备企业和优秀团队的招商引资力度,吸引其来沪发展,并在项目、土地、资金、人才等方面给予政策支持。” Ownership, own-brand or own-IP testforeign-owned firms
“鼓励政府和国有控股企业投资建设的通信基站、交通设施、林场消防站点等太阳能光电设施,按“同等优先”原则采购本地产品和服务。” Local content / localisation rateimports, other regions

Keyword and model screens: leads to check against the document, not findings. Newest first, one per document.

Coming into force (12 months)

No in-force date in the next 12 months.

Expiring (12 months)

Firms named most often

Listed groups: reported government grants

No listed group in this sector with HKEX grants extracted.

Market12-month changeMSCI China
TAN-9%-18%
JKS-65%-18%
DQ-60%-18%
CSIQ-34%-18%

Prices to 2026-10-14. Context, not a signal: see Insights → Markets for what publication does and does not move.

How this sector is defined

155 documents whose title matches 光伏|太阳能, plus 31 in the topic tree pv; 164 together. Goods: HS 854142, 854143. Measures and preference provisions are screen output; open each document for the clause.