Risk brief: Chinese industrial policy, 10 November 2026

WHERE THE RADAR POINTS

• Supported and pushing out: New-energy vehicles (exports to the EU 78% a year since 2019); Drones and low-altitude (exports to the EU 21% a year since 2022).
• Pushing out, policy now below the mean: Batteries and storage (China 90% of EU imports), policy pressure highest in 2024; EV charging (China 59% of EU imports), policy pressure highest in 2022; Critical minerals (China 83% of EU imports), policy pressure highest in 2018; Shipbuilding (China 25% of EU imports), policy pressure highest in 2023.
• Price pressure in the EU: Drones and low-altitude (unit-value gap -29% → -70%, volume 96% vs -20% since 2023); Solar PV (unit-value gap -18% → -59%, volume -2% vs -68% since 2023); Semiconductors (unit-value gap -46% → -55%, volume 1% vs -27% since 2023); AI and computing (unit-value gap -16% → -53%, volume 11% vs -5% since 2023); Batteries and storage (unit-value gap -30% → -43%, volume 87% vs 19% since 2023); New-energy vehicles (unit-value gap -26% → -39%, volume 7% vs -2% since 2023).
• Against the EU's own targets: Batteries and storage (China 90% of EU imports; Net-Zero Industry Act); Critical minerals (China 83% of EU imports; Critical Raw Materials Act); Solar PV (China 98% of EU imports; Net-Zero Industry Act).
• Pressure without an anti-subsidy case held: Drones and low-altitude (China 76% of EU imports; subsidy file); Solar PV (China 98% of EU imports; subsidy file); AI and computing (China 51% of EU imports; subsidy file); Batteries and storage (China 90% of EU imports; subsidy file). Anti-dumping cases are not held.
• The exposure is broad: China's share of EU imports rose a median 5.9 points across machinery, electrical, vehicle and instrument headings 2019–2025, no more where Chinese policy targets the goods (p = 0.99). The test →
• Next wave? Policy pressure above the mean, exports not yet: Pharmaceuticals, AI and computing, Robotics, Semiconductors, Machine tools, Seeds.
• The 15th Five-Year Plan outlines: attention rising where the EU already depends on China: AI and computing 5.0×, Drones and low-altitude 27.7×, Batteries and storage 2.6×, Solar PV 1.7× (15 outlines held against 7). New since the 14th: Low-altitude economy, Embodied AI and humanoid robots, Brain-computer interfaces. Central new-energy vehicles plan of 9 Sep 2026: no restatement held yet, typical province May 2027–Mar 2028. Central pharmaceuticals plan of 28 Aug 2026: no restatement held yet, typical province Feb 2027–Jul 2027. Plan watch →
• Top five (default weights, rank range under random weights): New-energy vehicles 1–5; Batteries and storage 1–5; Drones and low-altitude 3–6; Pharmaceuticals 2–9; AI and computing 2–9.
• Ranking robust to the sector definition: ρ = 0.99 against title match alone.

WHAT MOVED SINCE 12 MAY 2026

• AI and computing policy pressure 0.44 → 0.63
• Seeds policy pressure -0.04 → 0.15
• Pharmaceuticals policy pressure 0.52 → 0.66
• Critical minerals policy pressure -0.31 → -0.20
• Drones and low-altitude 0.48 → 0.14
• Civil aviation -1.18 → -1.35
• Batteries and storage -0.05 → -0.17

Relative to the other sectors: a rise means rising faster than the rest.

6 CENTRAL DOCUMENTS IN RADAR SECTORS