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How Chinese industrial policy travels from the State Council to provinces and cities, which documents favour domestic firms, and what is coming next.
Ask in English or Chinese. Trace sources, compare terms and challenge a conclusion.
Local evidence mode
Three findings. Follow each back to the original record.
A nine-firm ledger exposes the difference. Historical evaluator figures for a mixed-sector 2023 round—not a current unpaid balance.
2024 evaluation · Annex 4, p.94Reconcile the ledger ↗ CHARGING · TENDER TERMS50% / 10%Two advance clauses use different bases. Read the exclusions before comparing the projects. Tender terms, not observed payments.
Guangde p.77 · Ningguo p.75Open the clauses ↗ MACHINE TOOLS · TAICANGTwo dates.The contract cover and portal record disagree on the signing date. Inspect both versions before relying on the chronology.
23 August / 5 September 2025Inspect the discrepancy ↗21,361 firms are named in 382 policy documents: subsidy payments, tax-relief and subsidy catalogues, designations, key projects, type approvals. Start from a firm to see every list it is on and the document each comes from.
| Most often listed for a benefit | Ownership | Documents |
|---|---|---|
| 北汽福田汽车股份有限公司 | State-owned | 105 |
| 比亚迪汽车工业有限公司 | Domestic private | 97 |
| 浙江吉利汽车有限公司 | Domestic private | 92 |
| 东风汽车集团有限公司 | State-owned | 87 |
| 厦门金龙联合汽车工业有限公司 | State-owned | 85 |
| 厦门金龙旅行车有限公司 | State-owned | 85 |
| 南京金龙客车制造有限公司 | Domestic private | 85 |
| 浙江豪情汽车制造有限公司 | Domestic private | 85 |
| 重庆长安汽车股份有限公司 | State-owned | 83 |
| 金龙联合汽车工业(苏州)有限公司 | State-owned | 83 |
Where state support, local preference and export push coincide. Top 6 of 16 under the default weights, with the range each rank moves through when the weights are drawn at random. Full radar, your own weights, robustness → · Risk brief → · Exposure check for one operation →
| # | Sector | range | policy | trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New-energy vehicles | 1–5 | 0.08 | 1.55 |
| 2 | Batteries and storage | 1–5 | -0.17 | 1.16 |
| 3 | Drones and low-altitude | 3–6 | 0.14 | 0.55 |
| 4 | Pharmaceuticals | 2–9 | 0.66 | -0.13 |
| 5 | AI and computing | 2–9 | 0.63 | -0.25 |
| 6 | Robotics | 4–11 | 0.46 | -0.14 |
Supported and pushing out (policy and trade scores both above the mean)
New-energy vehicles exports to EU 78%/yr · Drones and low-altitude exports to EU 21%/yr
Pushing out, policy now below the mean (China's share of EU imports)
Batteries and storage 90% · EV charging 59% · Critical minerals 83% · Shipbuilding 25%
Next wave? (policy pressure above the mean, exports not yet)
Pharmaceuticals · AI and computing · Robotics · Semiconductors · Machine tools · Seeds
Co-occurrence, not causation: the radar does not show that support caused exports. Each sector brief lists the documents, clauses, named firms and dates behind its figures.
Measures whose own text sets an end date in the next six months: sunset clauses to watch for an extension (延续) or a quiet lapse. 171 in all. In the last 12 months 288 documents' measures ended: 33 with a renewal, replacement or later version held, 217 with no successor held. Ended and ending: renewed or lapsed? → · Every measure still in force →
| Ends | Document | Measures | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-30 | 上海市人民政府办公厅印发《关于加快发展本市保障性租赁住房的实施意见》的通知 Notice from the General Office of the Shanghai Municipal People’s Government on the Issua… |
Capital grant | Provincial · Shanghai |
| 2026-12-01 | 三明市人民政府办公室关于印发三明市加快推进竹产业高质量发展实施意见的通知 Notice from the General Office of the Sanming Municipal People’s Government on the Issuan… |
Capital grant, Interest subsidy | Prefectural · Fujian |
| 2026-12-06 | 关于印发《虹口区促进生物技术产业发展的试行办法》的通知 Notice on the Issuance of the ‘Interim Measures for Promoting the Development of the Biot… |
Capital grant, Credit guarantee, Tax relief | County · Shanghai |
| 2026-12-14 | 厦门市人民政府办公厅关于印发服务“六稳”“六保”进一步做好“放管服”改革有关工作实施意见的通知 Notice from the General Office of the Xiamen Municipal People’s Government on Issuing the… |
Tax relief | Prefectural · Fujian |
| 2026-12-20 | 包头市人民政府办公室关于印发包头市育儿补贴及托育机构运营奖励补贴政策实施方案（试行）的通知 Notice from the General Office of the Baotou Municipal People’s Government on the Issuanc… |
Capital grant, Operating subsidy | Prefectural · Inner Mongolia |
| 2026-12-27 | 新疆生产建设兵团优质企业梯度培育管理实施细则（试行） Detailed Rules for the Management of the Tiered Cultivation of High-Quality Enterprises i… |
Capital grant | Provincial · Xinjiang |
| 2026-12-31 | 交通运输部 国家发展改革委关于2026年实施老旧营运货车报废更新的通知 Notice from the Ministry of Transport and the National Development and Reform Commission … |
Capital grant, Trade-in / scrappage subsidy | National |
| 2026-12-31 | 关于开展台山市县域充换电设施补短板试点奖补资金项目申报工作的通知 Notice on the Application Process for the Pilot Grant Scheme to Address Shortcomings in C… |
Capital grant | County · Guangdong |
| 2026-12-31 | 福建省农业农村厅关于印发《2026年福建省农业机械报废更新补贴工作方案》的通知 Notice from the Fujian Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on the Issu… |
Capital grant, Purchase subsidy, Trade-in / scrappage subsi… | Provincial · Fujian |
| 2026-12-31 | 福建省发展和改革委员会 福建省数据管理局关于印发福建省促进数据产业高质量发展行动计划（2025—2027年）的通知 Notice from the Fujian Provincial Development and Reform Commission and the Fujian Provin… |
Capital grant | Provincial · Fujian |
The latest state acts found to contain a measure or a withdrawal, newest first, with the measure's own dates. Keyword screen: leads to check, not codings. Full queue, filters and CSV →
| Dated | Document | Where | Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 重庆市人民政府办公厅关于印发《重庆市推进普惠金融高质量发展行动方案》的通知 渝府办发〔2026〕49号 |
Provincial 重庆市 |
Tax relief |
| 2026-10-20 | 关于申报新能源汽车充换电设施建设财政奖补资金的通知 | Prefectural 江苏省 › 南京市 |
Capital grant to 2026-12-31 |
| 2026-10-20 | 贵州省健康医药产业高质量发展实施方案（2026-2030年）（征求意见 Implementation Plan for the High-Quality Development of the Health and Pharmaceutical Ind… |
Provincial 贵州省 |
Capital grant |
| 2026-10-13 | 宁夏回族自治区人民政府办公厅关于印发《宁夏回族自治区全域消防安全监管实施办法（试行）》的通知 | Provincial 宁夏回族自治区 |
Capital grant to 2028-11-15 |
| 2026-10-08 | 重庆市人民政府办公厅关于印发《重庆市推动人工智能赋能人力资源服务业高质量发展若干措施》的通知 Notice from the General Office of the Chongqing Municipal People’s Government on the Issu… 渝府办发〔2026〕47号 |
Provincial 重庆市 |
Capital grantVouchers for firms |
| 2026-10-08 | 中共泉州市委 泉州市人民政府关于构建具有泉州特色的创新体系全方位推动高质量发展的意见 Opinions of the Quanzhou Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China and the Quan… |
Prefectural 福建省 › 泉州市 |
Tax relief |
| 2026-10-01 | 黑龙江省人民政府办公厅关于印发《2026年黑龙江省秸秆综合利用工作实施方案》的通知 | Provincial 黑龙江省 |
Capital grant |
| 2026-09-30 | 关于印发《江苏省新能源汽车充换电设施建设财政奖补资金安排实施细则》的通知 苏发改能源发〔2026〕933号 |
Provincial 江苏省 |
Capital grant to 2026-12-31 |
| 2026-09-30 | 关于佛山市广东燃料电池汽车示范城市群2026年中央节能减排补助资金补贴计划名单的公示 Public Notice Regarding the List of Recipients for the 2026 Central Government Energy Con… |
Prefectural 广东省 › 佛山市 |
Capital grant |
| 2026-09-29 | 昆明市人民政府 昆明警备区关于印发《昆明市贯彻落实〈云南省民兵权益保障及优待办法（试行）〉实施细则》的通知 昆政发〔2026〕14号 |
Prefectural 云南省 › 昆明市 |
Capital grant to 2027-09-29 |
Documents gov.cn news says were approved, are being drafted, or were issued, and which the corpus does not yet hold. Full horizon scan →
| Stage | Document | First seen |
|---|---|---|
| Approved, due out | 《国务院关于修改〈住房公积金管理条例〉的决定（草案）》 | 2026-07-31 |
| Approved, due out | 《国务院关于修改和废止部分行政法规的决定（草案）》 | 2026-10-16 |
| Approved, due out | 《事业单位登记管理条例（草案）》 | 2026-09-28 |
| Approved, due out | 《中医药传统知识保护条例（草案）》 | 2026-09-18 |
| Approved, due out | 《基金会管理条例（修订草案）》 | 2026-09-11 |
| Approved, due out | 《电力安全事故应急处置和调查处理条例（修订草案）》 | 2026-08-21 |
Findings written up from the corpus. All reports →
| Waitan Ludi Policy Terminal: research guide How to use the terminal’s corpus-wide research tools, then return to the evidence workspace. |
| Sector radar: method and current readings Sixteen strategic sectors on policy and trade indicators, with robustness checks and one pre-specified test; generated from code. |
| Briefing note: China's industrial-policy machine Five findings in two pages: substitution, trade, Switzerland, transmission, the 15th plan. |
| NEV subsidies by firm ownership Claims against approvals in MIIT's settlement rounds, 2016–2019, and why claims were cut. |
| Local protection under central bans Hand-reviewed cases where local rules contradict central bans on local protection. |
| Implementation lag How long local governments take to cite and act on central policy. |
| Who may apply: local-registration conditions Eligibility clauses that admit only locally registered applicants: the screen, its hand check (56/60) and the rates by level. |
| Do provinces still copy State Council directives? Share of each directive copied into its provincial restatement, 2013–26 (exploratory): rising to 2018, lower in 2025–26 on few documents. |
| Compliance screen Keyword-screen leads: local documents below central bans on local protection. |
| Policies that name firms Firm lists in policy documents: who is listed, for what, by ownership. |
| Horizon scan Trending terms, tree activity and announced documents from gov.cn news. |
| Pre-analysis plan: provincial responsiveness How the responsiveness decline was re-tested: estimands, rival explanations, decision rules, deviations. |
| Results: provincial responsiveness The pre-registered test: the decline is not statistically established (0.61, 0.28–1.07). |
| Documents cited but not held The crawl frontier: what the corpus cites and does not yet hold. |